Do we need a three class system?

[Bisonguy06]

If you’re a reader of preps, you’ve seen this type of stuff from me before. For the rest of you, I’ll recap: I believe that the push for 3 classes of basketball in North Dakota is fueled by a lot of emotion but not a lot of facts.

Last year, I started with the regional quarterfinals and highlighted how well the best small schools are competing with the ‘big’ class B schools that some people would like to see playing in their own class. This year, I’m going to do the same.

We’ve been bombarded with this myth that the largest ‘B’ schools and the private schools are dominating their competition. Well, check this out –Every school in bold is a school that most people would like to see in the middle class. Virtually all of these schools have one more thing in common – they did not win their district tournament.

Valley City is the largest class B school and largest school in their district. They did not win their district. Ellendale did.
Central Cass is next largest, largest in their district. They did not win it. FSHP did.
Grafton did not win their district. FLPR did.
Carrington did not win their district. Harvey did.
Lisbon did not win their district. North Sargent did.
Bottineau did not win their district. Neither did Rugby. Westhope-Newberg did.
Watford City did not win their district. Neither did New Town. Stanley did.
Beulah did not win their district. Hazen did. (Beulah’s bigger).
Des Lacs-Burlington did not win their district. Kenmare did.

Now the private schools: Oak Grove, Trinity, Ryan, Shiloh, and Williston Trinity Christian did not win their districts. None of them took second, either.

And here are some big Bs and privates that didn’t even qualify for the regional tournament: Kindred, New Town, Minot Ryan, Larimore, Lisbon, May-Port CG, Bowman County, Minot Ryan, Shiloh, and Williston Trinity Christian.

Hazen, Standing Rock and Langdon are the only bigger schools that won their district, and Hazen’s not even the largest team in their district. Out of 16 districts, just 3 were won by big schools.

We will see who comes out of each region. I'm sure we will have a mix of big and small with the girls and the boys in their state tournaments. But the bigs aren't just walking through the smalls on their way to state. It has been highly competitive, year after year, in our two class system in North Dakota. We don't need three classes. Before you try to "fix" the system, I'd like to see some evidence that it is broken.

P.S. Steve34 never liked "facts" like these.

[Flip]

Are the 3 class systems that get/have been proposed for all sports minus football or just basketball?

[Run4Fun2009]

Are the 3 class systems that get/have been proposed for all sports minus football or just basketball?

basketball and volleyball

[Irish]

I think it would be a great thing. It would save small schools from cooping earlier than they have to..

[Bisonguy06]

Now there's an argument based on a lot of emotion but not a whole lot of fact. The decision to co-op or consolidate is extremely difficult. In some cases, enrollment numbers are very low and trending lower. But in others, it's participation numbers that are trending lower even while enrollment stays steady.

There are a bunch of small-to-medium sized class B schools who are competing quite well in girls and boys basketball. Just look at the list above. Some of them are co-ops, some are not.

Schools have been co-oping and consolidating for years and will continue to do so. But that does not justify a third class. In fact, it's an argument against a third class. Why add classes when we are losing teams?

[ndlionsfan]

Let's look at it this way. In the 3 class proposal generally there are 32 teams in the middle class. Using Indy5's enrollments, let's throw out Whap and St Mary's cause they are class A, but let's add Bowman Co and Harvey since they are borderline to that "big" status anyway and when Wells co-ops with Harvey it would put them in the so called middle class anyway. That means 8 out of 32 teams that would be middle class didn't make regionals.....25%. There are 80 teams in the "small" class and 24 "bigs" made regionals leaving 40 "smalls" also in the regionals. That means 50% of the "small" schools didn't make regionals compared to only 25% of the "bigs" not making it. I'm not trying to advocate for either staying with 2 classes or going to 3, just presenting the information in another way. Some people will say half of the small teams making regionals is plenty, others will say its too small. I think its almost better to compare after the first round of regionals when we're down to 32 teams and some of the poor teams that still made regionals due to 4 out of 6 advancing are weeded out.

[NDplayin]

NDlionsfan... Your percentages likely seem accurate, and I know you weren't advocating one way or the other... still, I question how a three class system would solve your percentage discrepancy.

Let's say that you go to three classes with 80 teams in the bottom class. 20 of those 80 teams will now become the "big schools" within the new class, and will have a "statistical advantage" because of their higher enrollment. And what will the solution be when 12 of those top 20 (60%) schools advance and only 20 of the next 60 advance (33%)?? Will we want to split to four classes as a result?

There is no denying that there is a statistical advantage to having a higher enrollment. However, enrollment is obviously not the only factor in success. The question to be considered is if the statistical advantage of the bigger schools is so great that it is unreasonable to ask the smaller schools to overcome it?

Based Bisonguy’s numbers of bigs that didn’t win and number of bigs that didn’t even qualify, I would say that the statistical advantage is being overcome by small schools all over the state.

This is what I find ironic. A school with 90 students beats a school of 300 and we marvel at how great 90’s program is. When the same school of 90 loses to a school of 180, we rant about how 180 is double the size of 90... We never just shrug and say that the 180 school also has a great program. If enrollment were the primary factor in those games, 300 would never lose. It is time to start examining the strength of program for both BIG and SMALL schools and quit blaming our inadequacies on enrollment.

[ndlionsfan]

I agree with you completely NDplayin. The excuse of losing because you are playing a larger school is ridiculous. The last few years does show that the small schools are competing just fine with the larger schools. Is every small school successful? No. Is every large school successful? no. It comes down to building a program and having the right coach. I've seen it before when a school has low participation and is considering a co-op, but then a coaching change is made and in a couple years they are having success and high participation and they don't even have to consider a co-op anymore. Too bad good coaches are few and far between. A lot of young coaches aren't given the time to build a program because they are run out after a year or two. Less people interested in coaching because of all the garbage they have to deal with from parents, too.

[Bisonguy06]

Lionsfan, I'll break it down after every round all the way through so that you can take a look at it.

Last year, something like 22 of the final 32, 10 of the final 16, 6 of the final 8, and 3 of the final 4 were what you'd consider "small."

[Flip]

I think it would be a great thing. It would save small schools from cooping earlier than they have to..

Why is the small school class going to play 3 on 3?

[bball4]

Interesting facts bisonguy- thank you for those. It really puts things into perspective...

I come from one of the small school that found significant success in the district this year. My opinion of schools such as Valley City ( I use them because they are new into Class B) is that we will accept any opponent and take everything positive that we can from the experience (live and learn). I can see the difference in their enrollment compared to ours and their enrollment compared to West Fargo, Fargo North, South, etc.

What I have noticed while playing some of these "bigger" schools is the atmosphere. We played a few of the bigger schools on their home courts. There were times I felt like I was at a Duke or UNC game. Our players felt borderline taunted at times. Just not exactly something to which they are accustomed. With that being said-- it made the victory feel even sweeter.

What are the benefits of a 3 class system? Making the opportunity of going to state more achievable? What are the goals?

[Bisonguy06]

Quick update: Valley City, Bottineau, Beulah, Rugby, Watford City, and Fargo Oak Grove all lost out in the round of 64.

All of these schools, plus Kindred, New Town, Minot Ryan, Larimore, Lisbon, May-Port CG, Minot Ryan, Shiloh, and Williston Trinity Christian are out before the round of 32.

[Bisonguy06]

Here is the round of 32. Just look at all the small schools! I'd count 25 of the 32 remaining schools as either small or medium-sized class B schools. Central Cass, Grafton, Standing Rock, Carrington, Langdon, Hazen, and Trinity would be the bigs.

Carrington and Langdon play each other. Hazen and Trinity play each other. Therefore, you'll have 5 big schools AT MOST among the final 16.

Looking at the brackets, I'd say we already know that a small or medium-sized school will come out of regions 3, 6, & 8, and there will be at least one small school in every regional championship game, no matter how it shakes out on Tuesday.

SEMIFINALS:
REGION 1 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: North Sargent vs. Central Cass, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Hankinson vs. Milnor, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 2 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Thompson vs. North Border, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Grafton vs. FLPR, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 3 TOURNAMENT:
Game 5: HMB vs. Linton, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Napoleon vs. Kidder County, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 4 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Harvey vs. Rolla-Rock Lake, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Carrington vs. Langdon Area, 20 minutes after previous game


REGION 5 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Standing Rock vs. New Salem, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Underwood vs. Turtle Lake-Mercer, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 6 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Westhope-Newburg vs. Des Lacs-Burlington, 6 p.m.
Game 6: MLS vs. Kenmare, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 7 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Beach vs. Killdeer, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Dickinson Trinity vs. Hazen, 20 minutes after previous game

REGION 8 TOURNAMENT
Game 5: Stanley vs. Ray, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Mandaree vs. Parshall, 20 minutes after previous game

[ndlionsfan]

Here is the round of 32. Just look at all the small schools! I'd count 25 of the 32 remaining schools as either small or medium-sized class B schools. Central Cass, Grafton, Standing Rock, Carrington, Langdon, Hazen, and Trinity would be the bigs.

I'd count Harvey and DLB as bigs, too. Harvey would be right at the cut off either way and I believe DLB would in the middle class. Still, mostly small schools still playing and after tonight that ratio will tilt towards the small schools even more.

[Bisonguy06]

I'll meet you halfway and I'll give you DLB. They're a good-sized school. However, Bottineau, Rugby, and Minot Ryan are bigger than them within their own region, so you can't really say that DLB is proof that the big schools are dominating class B basketball.

It's much more of a stretch to say that Harvey is "big." When you look at football enrollments, Harvey currently opts up from 9 man to A football. They're not tiny, but I've never seen a 3 class proposal that put them in the middle class.

[ndlionsfan]

On the proposed 3 class plans I've seen the cutoff between the bottom two classes has been around 150 enrollment and Harvey is currently at 140 enrollment in high school. They opted up in the last plan, but they were at 70 boys in 7-10 and the cutoff for 11man was upper 70s so they weren't that far below. I see in the new plan they are at 52 boys in 7-10 so their enrollment must be dropping off pretty fast. That's why I said they could be considered big by some.

[The Schwab]

I think the one key fact that alot of people overlook in this talk of the 3 class system is participation. We can talk about enrollment numbers all we want but the fact is this, if kids dont choose to participate then their enrollment numbers mean nothing. Take football for example, and lets take the Linton-HMB co op, lets say that for some reason the NDHSAA rejects the full co op and HMB goes to lets say napoleon, that would put Linton in the enrollment numbers to play 9 man, and they would have 50 kids out for football. Now most people would complain because they would be a bigger 9 man school, but their advantage would come from PARTICIPATION, not enrollment numbers. Also, watching VC's high school girls play last night I found it really strange that they only had 1 senior out for basketball...1 senior from a high school that is close to 100 a class (between 80 and 100) and if we play the population percentages that means that there are 40-50 senior girls at VCHS, lets say that 25 of those girls would be able to play bball if the truly wanted too, that means that 96 percent of the able bodied girls choose not to participate. I think the question we need to ask ourselves is not about a 3 class system, but instead how to increase the participation in the high schools.

[Bisonguy06]

AMEN, and I think, unfortunately, that the majority of schools are dealing with decreasing participation AND enrollment at the same time.

[Deuce]

Part of VC's participation issue could be from getting pounded every year. They've not made it past the EDC playin game the last 4 years.

Also class A teams don't tend to have big classes except in a year with exceptional talent. Fargo South only has 1 senior, WF has 2, CHS 4, BHS 5, Mandan 5. All of these schools field 2 or more teams as freshmen but by the time they are seniors only a few of the best remain.

[Wildcat]

Class A schools cut kids. They get rid of most of their seniors if they aren't going to play. So there are seniors who went out versus seniors at Valley City who don't even try to go out.

[The Schwab]

That's exactly my point, why are the girls not going out, and dont give me the excuse of getting beat bad every night, my high school team was in the play in game every year and we had similar participation numbers to the other schools in our district. So instead of pointing fingers at the 2 class system we have, maybe we should fix the root of the problem.

[a-simple-fan]

AMEN, and I think, unfortunately, that the majority of schools are dealing with decreasing participation AND enrollment at the same time.

Langdon did not play a JV schedule this year. No seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores, 2 freshman and 2 8th graders.

[NDplayin]

Regarding the question of the thread: "Do we need a three class system", the 32 teams in the regional semi-finals give us some very interesting numbers indeed.

Our current system consists of 16 districts with a rough average of 7 per district. That means around 112 teams. As NDlionsfan pointed out earlier, most three class proposals consist of the top 32 of these teams in the middle class, and the remainder (80) in the bottom class. Therefore, my calculator tells me that of the Class B teams in our current system, 29% would be moved to the middle class... 71% would remain.

We've determined that of the 32 girls teams remaining, a maximum of 8 would have potential to be "middle class size." Those 8 represent 25% of the remaining 32. The other 75% would be bottom class schools.

If the split had been 9 and 23 instead of 8 and 24 the percentages would have been 28% and 72%... this would have been much more consistent with the 112 team breakdown of 29% and 71%.

I think the point is obvious... the smaller schools are actually the ones over represented in our current system this year... NOT the bigger ones. Small schools are doing tremendously well in our current system. If your team isn't one of those 32 still playing... spend more time fixing the problems in your own back yard and quit hopping up and down trying to count the number of kids on the other side of the fence.

[ndlionsfan]

AMEN, and I think, unfortunately, that the majority of schools are dealing with decreasing participation AND enrollment at the same time.

Langdon did not play a JV schedule this year. No seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores, 2 freshman and 2 8th graders.

Langdon?? Are you serious? Only 9 players out in a school that big that has had a lot of recent success?

[InTheKnow]

To me the topic of 3 classes with girls is not where the problem lies. My reasoning is that participation rates among girls in sports is so hit and miss enrollment rates mean nothing. The problem lies with the boys where the majority of co-ops are formed for competitive reasons and not because of lack of players to field a team of 15 in grades 9-12 which is usually the case among girls teams as you see countless more 8th grade varsity starters on the girls side compared to boys.