Almost There

[cometdad]

So I was a little off on the odds then (thanks for the info).

Small schools - approx. 4 appearances per year out of 79 - odds are 1 in 20
Big schools - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 25 - odds are 1 in 12
Parochial/private - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 6 - odds are 1 in3

Nice odds if you are a parochial/private - closer odds on the big/small than I would have guessed without numbers.

So - next question would be does it lend credence to my thought of pushing the parochial/private to class A and let them co-op with other big town schools if they are worried about being competitive? I just see Shiloh/St Marys and Ryan/Our Redeemers as natural fits. Not sure what could be done for Dickinson Trinity or Trinity Christian though. How do Dickinson and Williston rank in class A and would the sports only co-ops (that we see in small towns) help them keep up with their big city rivals?

One more piece of info - if the 2 parochial spots end up as smalls (ie: Velva instead of Ryan and Grant County instead of Shiloh - not guaranteed I know) the bigs to smalls odds become almost dead even.

Small schools - approx. 6 appearances per year out of 79 - odds are 1 in 13
Big schools - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 25 - odds are 1 in 12

[bison football73]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

[Indy5]

Hard to justify 3 class or super 2 idea if your numbers are correct. Big schools account for 23% of the teams and make 28% of the state appearances is a good balance. People may not agree that 150 is a big school, but if you look at the two ideas I don't think an enrollment of 150 would put you in the middle "area" of either. Kind of crazy that the private schools are only 5% of the teams but make up 26% of the state appearances.

The private number is high. But Trinity, Ryan, and Shiloh just had a great runs. Oak Grove has been good as well, but I think it might be a little tougher for them with region 1 having more big schools. I'm not sure what you can do about the privates though. If you look at Our Redeemers and Trinity Christian, neither have had much success at all. You can't just single out those 4, and the other 2 certainly can't do anything different. Those top 3 have naturally fallen from their elite status and I don't forsee them having runs like that anytime soon anyways.

[Bisonguy06]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

I think Heimer should wait for a year when the state tournament includes Oak Grove, Grafton, Linton HMB, Carrington, Shiloh, Bishop Ryan, Trinity, and Watford City, or something along those lines. 4 bigs, 4 parochials, and no small B schools. It just never pans out that way. A Milnor or a North Star always gets in the way.

[old#63]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

Amen, brother, amen!

[B-oldtimer]

Like I said i think your cut off of small and large school is off go through and do the numbers on schools in North Dakota and number of schools under 100 is more than half when you do the enrollments by grades 9 through 12. The coops have skewd the numbers some with size of schools in state tournament but it also addresses another issue that has been brought up alot of the coops have been formed to compete with larger schools. rAlot of the schools report their enrollments of grades 7 through 12 witch brings up the enrollment figures Region 4 i am fimilar with i did analysis of school here of enrollments they are as follows:
1. Four winds/ Minnewakin (156 + 56) 212
2. Harvey/Wells county (139 + 56) 195
3. Carrington 188
4. Langdon 162
5. Benson County (leeds 48 + Maddock 65) 113
6. New Rockford 110
7. ST. Johns 105
8. Lakota/Adams-edmore (62 + 36) 98
9. Northstar 87
10. Rolla 84
11. Warwick 70
12. Munich/Starkweather (30 + 30) 60
13. Rollette/Wolford (41 + 16) 56
14. Midkota 53

If you add up all enrollments and divide by number schools you come up with 113. average but the schools or coops at or below this average there are 10 schools or about 71% of schools competing below regions average. If you look at number of schools below the 100 enrollment its 50%. I would guess that region 4 would be similar to other regions with exception we don't have any parochial schools.These enrollment figures were from off internet may vary and some had to be ajusted from 7 through 12 enrollment.

The girls b state tournament this year school enrollments are as follows Centeral Cass 279; Thompson 124; Napoleon 76; Benson County 113; Grant county 90; Minot Bishop Ryan 196; Beach 116; and New Town 216. If use my figure from Region 4 of average of 113 for median school size we have in the state tournament 2 schools that are under that figure and 6 schools above that figure. But 3 schools are near that average so could say that 5 out 8 are near median number for 63% average median school but the 3 are on high or exceeding the median. There were only 2 schools under 100 in the tournament but going back to region 4 example 50% of schools were under 100 and we only had 25% of teams represented in state tournament were in this category. I bet if you went back and did the regions the number schools playing in the regionals would be skewed even farther to large schools and parochials. This shows that the deck is stacked in favor of larger schools not that smaller schools cann't compete on given years but it makes difficult to keep a competitive. Once you ever fall off and do not become competitive its hard to get participation and interest to become competitive. I have seen this already in the region with some schools and solution is not easy overcome. Now look at football we have four divisions that address this problem and it seems to be a fair solution and it also allows schools to opt up they so choose. In basketball we have everyone lumped together and Administrators and Activities Association not wanting to change anything or even discuss the problems we have with this setup. So we go on but class b tournament is loosing its appeal and attendance is shrinking and interest in basketball is shrinking. Heimer plan does address some of this but there are still issues to be resolved but at least its starting point and we need to be addressing these issues as well as seasons and length of seasons and tournament settings etc.

[winner-within]

I think North Dakota should just worry about the Roads, Oil, Hockey and Abortion and say the HeII with basketball

[Hinsa]

Sometimes I like Heimer's posts, more often he drives me nuts. So be it.

But you gotta admit, he's one of the few that can post a topic and within two days have 75 posts on the thread. He at least gives us something to read and yell and kick and scream about.

[old#63]

Roads, Oil, Hockey and Abortion

Pretty much sums up the last couple legislative sessions.

[heimer]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

I think Heimer should wait for a year when the state tournament includes Oak Grove, Grafton, Linton HMB, Carrington, Shiloh, Bishop Ryan, Trinity, and Watford City, or something along those lines. 4 bigs, 4 parochials, and no small B schools. It just never pans out that way. A Milnor or a North Star always gets in the way.

It would appear, reading through the comments, that the B world is far less united in the effectiveness of the system as Bisonguy would have us believe.

Next, football 73, you're a typical North Dakotan: You know, someone who just hates the opposition and just wants it to go away. The opposition is here to stay bud, and no, it doesn't get old. When you have a problem, who work for a fix, you don't just stick your head in the sand and wait for the koom-bye-yah.

Oh Bisonguy, look at the teams you listed. That's funny! The state tourney may not have them all there, but it will always have a couple, while some teams are going on decades of being turned away by the bigs and privates. That list looks a lot like every state tournament for the past decade.

Thanks for illustrating the problems so well, guys. Lies and assumptions about "every B school watching", refusing the opposition a spot in the conversation, and then laying out the tournament field for the next decade. I like it when you do my work for me.

[Bisonguy06]

This year's tourney fields included:

Milnor, Four Winds, LaMoure, Trenton, Trinity, Rugby, Shiloh, Cavalier
Bishop Ryan, Central Cass, Thompson, Napoleon, Benson County, Beach, New Town, Grant County.

16 slots, 16 different teams. Schools of all sizes. Close, competitive games. Were you paying any attention whatsoever?

[Bisonguy06]

That first round of the B boys state tournament had to be a rough one for you.

"The small schools can't compete! The system is rigged! It's unfair!"

Then:
LaMoure over Trinity
followed by
Milnor over Shiloh
followed by
Trenton over Cavalier
followed by
Four Winds over Rugby.

Ouch.

[bison football73]

Heimer I was just wondering because you are just tired of Valley City losing in class A. You have no other reason behind this argument. Small schools compete in class B. Get over it. No matter how much you try and ignore it small schools can play with the big schools. Milnor won state basketball this year for boys, they are not a big school. Trenton took 3rd, and they won't have a basketball program next year.

[Bisonguy06]

Hey Bison football guy, I appreciate you being on the right side here, but Heimer has pretty much dropped the Valley City thing over the last year or two. I'm sure he'll tell you that if I don't. Stick to the fact that a small school ends up playing for the state boys championship EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

Don't kid yourself, there's a reason why Heimer put this thread over here on the girls side rather than the boys side, because he has no case whatsoever with the recent history of the class B boys.

[Bisonguy06]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

I think Heimer should wait for a year when the state tournament includes Oak Grove, Grafton, Linton HMB, Carrington, Shiloh, Bishop Ryan, Trinity, and Watford City, or something along those lines. 4 bigs, 4 parochials, and no small B schools. It just never pans out that way. A Milnor or a North Star always gets in the way.

It would appear, reading through the comments, that the B world is far less united in the effectiveness of the system as Bisonguy would have us believe.

Next, football 73, you're a typical North Dakotan: You know, someone who just hates the opposition and just wants it to go away. The opposition is here to stay bud, and no, it doesn't get old. When you have a problem, who work for a fix, you don't just stick your head in the sand and wait for the koom-bye-yah.

Oh Bisonguy, look at the teams you listed. That's funny! The state tourney may not have them all there, but it will always have a couple, while some teams are going on decades of being turned away by the bigs and privates. That list looks a lot like every state tournament for the past decade.

Thanks for illustrating the problems so well, guys. Lies and assumptions about "every B school watching", refusing the opposition a spot in the conversation, and then laying out the tournament field for the next decade. I like it when you do my work for me.

Heimer, you've got it backwards. When you bury your head in the sand, you look up and think that there's a problem. The only problem is that you've got a bunch of (stuff) in your eyes and you missed a good season of basketball.

[cubsfan]

Heimer, I have been on ND Preps for three years and every year about this time you whine about the same thing. Doesn't it get old?

I think Heimer should wait for a year when the state tournament includes Oak Grove, Grafton, Linton HMB, Carrington, Shiloh, Bishop Ryan, Trinity, and Watford City, or something along those lines. 4 bigs, 4 parochials, and no small B schools. It just never pans out that way. A Milnor or a North Star always gets in the way.

Linton is not a big school by any means. Just because a school is consistently viable, doesn't mean they need to be moved.

[Bisonguy06]

You are right. Region 3 doesn't have a true "big" school or a parochial school.

[ndlionsfan]

Moving the girls to the fall should not have an affect on that sport as 49 other states do it and have successful girls basketball participation. Volleyball participation doesn't benefit from being in the fall. The reason volleyball is more popular now is that it's not as much work as basketball, so more girls play. Just like football participation has gone down, it's more work that basketball for boys so they are more likely to play the easier sport. Switching the girls/boys seasons around has hurt the fan following for girls basketball, though. They could have easily made changes to the volleyball season to correct the problem of overlap, but they chose the other option. Will they ever change it back? I don't know, but I hope so. Either that or find some other creative way to have a Super B type tournament as class A does. If the super region idea works out and all regions go to that, it might be possible. If not, there is no way to hold all those tournaments at the same time.

I don't know what the attendance numbers were at the state tournament, but if you were there it was an electric crowd. I have not been to a girls state tournament in a number of years and was pleasantly surprised at the crowd following and excitement at the tourney. Who cares if the dome didn't look full on TV. That's not what its about. It was still a great atmosphere and I was at the afternoon games most of the time. The only disappointing thing there was that Beach, New Town, and Grant County student sections disappeared after the first day. Still plenty of their fans in the reserved seats, but I don't know why they gave up on their team playing in the consolation round. Their student sections consisted of 5-15 elementary kids.

[The Schwab]

How many "big schools" are in each region? I bet the big schools are mainly in 3 regions, that could be why the "bigs" only average 2 trips a year to the state tournament.

[old#63]

Question? It's easy to define private, but what do we call big and small? Here are the average daily school enrollments for the schools and coops in Region 2 (taken from the DPI website).

Grafton/ST 889
Hillsboro/CV 608
May Port CG 495
Park River/FL 455
Hatton/Northwood 439
North Border 439
Thompson 438
Cavalier 399
Larimore 397
Midway/Minto 388
Drayton/VE 358
Dakota Prairie 256
GCC 240

Divide these numbers by roughly 13 (k-12) to find average class sizes. Is Grafton the only "big"?

Also, these are total school enrollments, not just high school, so actual high school numbers (that's what NDHSAA uses) will vary somewhat.

[winner-within]

Question? It's easy to define private, but what do we call big and small? Here are the average daily school enrollments for the schools and coops in Region 2 (taken from the DPI website).

Grafton/ST 889
Hillsboro/CV 608
May Port CG 495
Park River/FL 455
Hatton/Northwood 439
North Border 439
Thompson 438
Cavalier 399
Larimore 397
Midway/Minto 388
Drayton/VE 358
Dakota Prairie 256
GCC 240

Divide these numbers by roughly 13 (k-12) to find average class sizes. Is Grafton the only "big"?

Also, these are total school enrollments, not just high school, so actual high school numbers (that's what NDHSAA uses) will vary somewhat.

Good Info 63
Cavalier used to be a "BIG" but is truly a "small school", and yet to co-op in Football or Boys and Girls Basketball and Volley ball

[Flip]

Question? It's easy to define private, but what do we call big and small? Here are the average daily school enrollments for the schools and coops in Region 2 (taken from the DPI website).

Grafton/ST 889
Hillsboro/CV 608
May Port CG 495
Park River/FL 455
Hatton/Northwood 439
North Border 439
Thompson 438
Cavalier 399
Larimore 397
Midway/Minto 388
Drayton/VE 358
Dakota Prairie 256
GCC 240

Divide these numbers by roughly 13 (k-12) to find average class sizes. Is Grafton the only "big"?

Also, these are total school enrollments, not just high school, so actual high school numbers (that's what NDHSAA uses) will vary somewhat.

The only "small" schools IMO are DP and GCC.

[ndlionsfan]

I agree flip. Surprised at a lot of those enrollments. Must be a lot of variation with elementary, high school, boys, girls, etc. Thompson and Cavalier are 9man football, yet have more total enrollment than Larimore who is almost AA football.

[Bisonguy06]

So I was a little off on the odds then (thanks for the info).

Small schools - approx. 4 appearances per year out of 79 - odds are 1 in 20
Big schools - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 25 - odds are 1 in 12
Parochial/private - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 6 - odds are 1 in3

Nice odds if you are a parochial/private - closer odds on the big/small than I would have guessed without numbers.

So - next question would be does it lend credence to my thought of pushing the parochial/private to class A and let them co-op with other big town schools if they are worried about being competitive? I just see Shiloh/St Marys and Ryan/Our Redeemers as natural fits. Not sure what could be done for Dickinson Trinity or Trinity Christian though. How do Dickinson and Williston rank in class A and would the sports only co-ops (that we see in small towns) help them keep up with their big city rivals?

One more piece of info - if the 2 parochial spots end up as smalls (ie: Velva instead of Ryan and Grant County instead of Shiloh - not guaranteed I know) the bigs to smalls odds become almost dead even.

Small schools - approx. 6 appearances per year out of 79 - odds are 1 in 13
Big schools - approx. 2 appearances per year out of 25 - odds are 1 in 12

With all your numbers, keep in mind that we used to have twice as many class B teams competing a generation ago. Look at any school of your choice, and you will find that their odds of making it to state have actually IMPROVED a great deal over the last 20-25 years. Regions that used to send 1 team out of 32 are now sending 1 out of 12. There's some simple math for you.

[classB4ever]

Following are the numbers from the NDHSAA. They had listed a total of 168 High Schools in ND for the 2012-13 school year. They also had listed 128 total teams. 18 of those were class A with enrollment of 325+ with Shanley at 224 opting up. There were 53 schools that enrollment needed to be adjusted due to 7-12 listing or 10-12 listing.

West Fargo 1994
Bismarck High School 1867
Minot 1850
Bismarck Century 1625
Fargo Davies 1140
Fargo South 1100
Grand Forks Red River 1097
Mandan 1015
Fargo North 1010
Grand Forks Central 884
Williston 755
Dickinson 731
Jamestown 670
Turtle Mountain Community 513
Devils Lake 505
Wahpeton 385
Valley City 356
Bismarck St. Marys 340
Shanley 224


Grafton 274
Central Cass 260
Standing Rock 241
Beulah 224
Watford City 220
Kindred 211
Lisbon 197
Bottineau 195
Bishop Ryan 194
Hillsboro/Central Valley 192
Rugby 192
Carrington 188
Hazen 185
New Town 180
Stanley 173
Four Winds/Minnewaukan 172
Northern Cass 170
Oakes 170
Des Lacs-Burlington 167
Dickinson Trinity 164
Harvey-Wells County 164
Heart River 160
May-Port/Clifford-Galesburg 156
Larimore 155
LaMoure-Litchville/Marion 150
Park River/Fordville-Lankin 149
Hatton/Northwood 148
Linton/Hazelton-Moffit-Braddock 141
Bowman County 139
Midway-Minto 136
Killdeer 135
Surrey 135
North Border 133
Oak Grove 133
Thompson 132
Dunseith 131
Langdon Area 129
Finley-Sharon/Hope-Page 122
Hettinger/Scranton 122
Kidder County 120
New Rockford-Sheyenne 116
Glen Ullin/Hebron 114
Benson County 112
Wyndmere/Lidgerwood 112
Beach 111
Cavalier 111
Garrison 109
St. John 109
Drayton/Valley-Edinburg 106
Towner Granville Upham 106
Lewis & Clark -Berthold 104
New Salem-Almont 104
Velva 100
South Border 99
Wilton-Wing 97
Lakota/Adams-Edmore 95
Ellendale 94
MLS Mohall/Sherwood 94
Parshall 94
Edgeley-Kulm 93
Tioga 92
Barnes County North 91
Kenmare 91
Enderlin 90
Griggs County Central 90
Shiloh Christian 90
North Star 89
Richland 89
Ray 88
Central Prairie 87
Napoleon 86
Grant County 85
Hankinson 85
Dakota Prairie 84
Richardton-Taylor 84
Strasburg/Zeeland 84
Washburn 80
Glenburn 79
Maple Valley 78
Rolla 77
Divide County 76
Flasher 72
Turtle Lake-Mercer/McClusky 69
Mott-Regent 68
Rolette/Wolford 67
Our Redeemer's 66
North Sargent 65
Trenton 65
Center-Stanton 64
Max 64
Underwood 60
Warwick 60
Sargent Central 58
Westhope-Newburg 58
Drake/Anamoose 56
Milnor 56
Pingree-Buchanan/Kensal 56
Trinity Christian 56
Solen 55
New England 54
Burke County 50
Munich/Starkweather 49
Mandaree 44
Sawyer 44
Midkota 40
White Shield 39
Lewis & Clark, North Shore 38
Campbell-Tintah-Fairmount 34
Powers Lake 34
2013 - 128 Total Teams