The season kicks off this weekend and one of the games I am looking forward to is Our Redeemer's playing at Parshall. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 pre-season, both team's are projected to make it to the State Tournament, and both teams have some question marks regarding how good they will be this season. This early season match up should be helpful to answer some of those questions. I am going to put out my best guess at to how the game will unfold. Please take this as pure speculation - I know that no one has played any games yet this year, so speculation is the best we have. I thought it might be fun for people on the forum to take sides and state their reasons and then we can see how it actually plays out.
I will start with my conclusion: I think ORCS will win this game.
Now, for my reasons why. Parshall made it to the State Tournament last year and will likely go back again this year. They return their best player (D. Simpson). However, they graduated their point guard,(J. Roberts) who was also their second leading scorer after last season. They also graduated their leading rebounder (M. Odermann). They bring back 3 starters, but the loss of their floor leader and a good rebounder and defender will be hard to replace.
ORCS graduated their leading scorer (D. Kopinger). Certainly, losing the leading scorer is a blow to any team, but I think the loss of Kopinger will be easier for ORCS than the loss of Roberts for Parshall. Kopinger was ORCS's leader in scoring, but ORCS has several other players who scored nearly as much as him. ORCS has depth in scoring and I think they will be able to find players who can score points.
That is another reason that I think ORCS has the advantage in this game. Their attack was balanced last year and I think they will be even more balanced this year. That makes them hard to stop - they don't have any one player to key on, or try to stop. Parshall - on the other hand - is clearly dependent on Simpson. If you stop Simpson (like Rugby did at State) then they don't go very far. Now that will be the question. Can ORCS stop Simpson? Last season, Simpson scored 27 points against ORCS. If he has another big game against them this season, then Parshall might win. If ORCS holds Simpson to reasonable points (10-15) then they should win.
Now, this assumes that ORCS really does have the ability to make up for the scoring they are not getting from Kopinger. Looking at the hoopster and last years numbers, they should be able to do that, but again, they haven't played yet so I am just guessing. They just have so much height (Steede 6'8" / Reiten 6'6" / Talley 6'4" / VanLith 6'3 - plus two guys on the bench who are 6'4"). Last season, I watched a few ORCS games and they really never took advantage of their height. If they find a way to consistently exploit their height advantage they should be able to score. If they don't, well then Parshall is back in the game. Parshall has a big player (M. Goodbird) but I don't know if he has the speed and endurance to keep up with all the big guys from ORCS.
Both teams like to run and I think that is an advantage for ORCS. Again, ORCS has lots of big guys so they don't have to worry about fatigue or fouls. Also, as I said, ORCS's bigs are more mobile than Parshall's. Parshall has Goodbird and Simpson as far as I know for height. If either of them gets into foul trouble their team is in trouble.
The game is in Parshall and that is their advantage. For them to win, Simpson has to have a big game (near 30). They have to limit turnovers. They have to stop ORCS on the inside (or try to get ORCS into a 3-point shooting contest). Someone else from Parshall has to have a good offensive game to help Simpson, and Parshall has to stay out of foul trouble.