EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

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EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby heimer » Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:19 am

Don't know if this helps anyone, but I thought I'd post it.

Current EDC standings:
North 14-4
Shanley 13-4
South 12-5
Red River 12-6
West Fargo 11-6
Valley City 7-9
Wahpeton 6-11
Central 4-13
Devils Lake 3-13
Davies 3-14

Remaining games Thursday;
Devils Lake at VC (2)
Central at Davies
Shanley at Wahpeton
West Fargo at South

Ifs: (tiebreakers based on w/l tomorrow)

IF Shanley defeats Wahpeton, they will be the top seed (won at North 82-68 December 21st, lost vs. North 59-54 February 4th, wins point-spread tiebreaker with +11)

IF Shanley loses at Wahpeton and South defeats West Fargo, Shanley is the second seed (lost at South 66-55 January 8th, won vs. South 75-60 February 12th, wins point spread with a +4), and South would be the three seed.

IF South loses to West Fargo, North and Shanley are top two (not necessarily in that order) and West Fargo would be the three seed (West Fargo, Red River, and South tied at 12-6, West Fargo 3-1 against RR and South, RR 2-2 vs. South and West Fargo, and South 1-3 vs. West Fargo and RR). In this scenario, RR, is fourth, and South is fifth.

So, in the top half of the EDC, a Shanley and South win gives us:
1. Shanley
2. North
3. South
4. RR
5. WF

A Shanley and WF win gives us:
1. Shanley
2. North
3. WF
4. RR
5. South

A Shanley loss and South win gives us:
1. North
2. Shanley
3. South
4. RR
5. WF

A Shanley loss and WF win gives us
1. North
2. Shanley
3. WF
4. RR
5. South

Conclusions: North and Shanley have clinched no worse than second, RR has clinched fourth, and South and WF play for the third seed, with the loser fifth. Shanley's game with Wahpeton is Shanley's EDC title game.

In the bottom half:

VC has clinched sixth. They own tiebreakers with Wahpeton (swept regular season)
Wahpeton has clinched 7th by virtue of record.

IF Central and Devils Lake win:
Central is #8, (Won at Devils Lake 57-42 January 15th, lost vs. Devils Lake 74-64 February 22nd, win point spread with a +5), Devils Lake is #9, and Davies is #10.

IF Central and Valley City win:
Central is #8 by record, Davies is #9 (beat Devils Lake at home 80-65 January 4th, lost at Devils Lake 65-64 February 10th, wins point spread with a +14), and Devils Lake is #10.

IF Davies and Devils Lake win:
Devils Lake is #8 by record, and Davies must win by 7 or more to claim #9 (Davies lost at Central 71-65 January 7th). A win by Davies of 6 would result in the next tiebreaker (unknown to me), and a win by five or less gives Central the #9 spot.)

IF Davies and Valley City win:
Above point-spread tiebreaker still applies, but now determines eight and nine, and Devils Lake is 10.

Conclusions: None of the final three seeds have been clinched.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby Baseball1000 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 12:34 pm

Interesting, I was trying to figure this out but was having some trouble. Thanks for the post.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby anyballgame45 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:39 pm

If WF, RR and South end up with the same records is the tie breaker head to head when it is a three way tie?

If two teams tie head to head is always the first tie breaker but in a three way tie head to head is usually not used.

Any help with this would be appreciated.

On another note: I would not want to be the team which has to face Davies the first game of the seed-in. They have played well of late and will have a ton of confidence going into the playoffs.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby T$$ » Wed Feb 23, 2011 10:48 pm

I can make this much simpler. IF 4 east teams play in the state tournement at least 3 of them will loose (possibly all of them). I see Shanley and West Fargo contending if they can get through the first round. The top 5 from the west are all good teams.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby roundem6 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:12 pm

T$$ wrote:I can make this much simpler. IF 4 east teams play in the state tournement at least 3 of them will loose (possibly all of them). I see Shanley and West Fargo contending if they can get through the first round. The top 5 from the west are all good teams.


Interesting why West Fargo would be able to compete and not North (a North team that handled WF twice). I agree West teams are going to dominate the first round.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby T$$ » Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:29 pm

I think West Fargo has the best coach in the East which gives them an edge in the tournament. Shanley is the most talented team. North losing to Davies late in the year is why I left them out. I feel the standings in the east are misleading as they don't have a balanced schedule. No avoiding this though with the number of teams. I really wish they would bring back the East vs.West classic as it would help give a way to compare more than just opinions.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby heimer » Thu Feb 24, 2011 6:15 am

anyballgame45 wrote:If WF, RR and South end up with the same records is the tie breaker head to head when it is a three way tie?

If two teams tie head to head is always the first tie breaker but in a three way tie head to head is usually not used.


In a three-way tie, the first tie-breaker used is head-to-head competition among the teams involved in the tie. This is the same process as football or really any other sport breaking a three-way tie.

If West Fargo wins, they would have a sweep of Red River and a split with Fargo South, making them 3-1. Red River swept Fargo South and was swept by West Fargo, making them 2-2. South was swept by Red River, and, should they lose to West Fargo, they would have split with the Packers, making them 1-3. West Fargo wins the third seed.

Afer that tie is broken, it reverts to head-to-head of remaining teams. As Red River swept South, they would be the four seed, and South is fifth.

It is incorrect to say that head-to-head is not used to break a three-way tie. Head-to-head is always the first tiebreaker in any tie.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby Mighty-Mouse » Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:09 pm

Thanks heimer for the info, so the "if" really is an "if"
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby roundem6 » Thu Feb 24, 2011 8:19 pm

T$$ wrote:I think West Fargo has the best coach in the East which gives them an edge in the tournament. Shanley is the most talented team. North losing to Davies late in the year is why I left them out. I feel the standings in the east are misleading as they don't have a balanced schedule. No avoiding this though with the number of teams. I really wish they would bring back the East vs.West classic as it would help give a way to compare more than just opinions.


Limke always has them playing good D, but North did beat them twice pretty handily. Held them to 44 and 45 points in their two games.
North used to do a Western swing at the beginning of the year playing Mandan/Century on a Friday-Saturday but his year they played Minot only. 71-70 W in OT.
Shanley has the best talent in the East, but I don't see them, or any other east teams, beating Bismarck High or Century.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby T$$ » Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:59 pm

Roundem6. I have read your posts and am impressed with your knowledge. West Fargo played with Century at CHS. They dominated the first half and then decided to shoot 3s and got a few bad breaks and couldn't recover. I agree that with you on Shanley.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby roundem6 » Tue Mar 01, 2011 12:43 pm

T$$ wrote:Roundem6. I have read your posts and am impressed with your knowledge. West Fargo played with Century at CHS. They dominated the first half and then decided to shoot 3s and got a few bad breaks and couldn't recover. I agree that with you on Shanley.


I think it was actually a "good loss" I guess I will call it for North against Davies; They had won 7-8 straight and I think the loss will allow them to refocus going into tournaments. As far as WF, the games I have watched them play it looks like live and die by the 3. Farkas took about 5, and Schwartz was pushin 10 @ North.

WF plays Valley City first round tonight; VC actually beat them @ WF earlier this year in 2OT i believe so it could be interesting.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby gobison » Wed Mar 02, 2011 9:38 am

I would like to congratulate heimer on a job well done.
A lot of work was put into that.
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Re: EDC analysis (The "IF" thread)

Postby MoSiouxFan » Thu Mar 03, 2011 1:21 am

gobison wrote:I would like to congratulate heimer on a job well done.
A lot of work was put into that.

Agreed.
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