Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

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Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:25 am

Has everyone noticed the huge developments going into towns like Berthold, Burlington, Surrey, Stanley, Tioga, Ray, Crosby, Watford City, Killdeer and likely South Heart and Belfield? Many of these towns will be small cities of 5,000 to 10,000 people within a decade. A lot of these towns will be Class A if those projections and developments come to fruition.

There are also three new high schools being planned due to splits: for West Fargo, for Minot, and for Bismarck. In addition Williston will almost certainly need another high school (and maybe even two more if it gets to 100,000 people), and Dickinson may grow to 50,000 or more and require a new HS too. The rural district surrounding Williston is also planning its own high school (now offers through 8th grade).

There could actually end up being four regions in Class A again, like there was in the 1960's and 1970's.

Here's what could happen to Class A:

Northwest Region

Williston HS
Williston Bakken HS (new)
WIlliston Williams HS (new rural)
Williams County (Ray)
Tioga
Stanley
Watford City
Killdeer
Lewis&Clark (new refinery by Makoti)
New Town
Crosby

Southwest Region

Bismarck
Bismarck Century
Bismarck Lincoln (new)
Bismarck St Marys
Bismarck Shiloh
Mandan
Dickinson
Dickinson Roosevelt (new)
South Heart-Belfield
Beach

North Central

Minot
Minot Souris (new)
Minot Ryan
Minot Our Redeemers
Des Lacs - Burlington
Surrey
Berthold
Bottineau (oil activity there too)
Turtle Mountain
Devils Lake
Jamestown

East

Fargo North
Fargo South
Fargo Davies
Fargo Shanley
West Fargo
West Fargo Sheyenne (new)
Central Cass
Wahpeton
Grand Forks Central
Grand Forks Red River
Last edited by NoDakinSouth on Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Flip » Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:10 pm

You'll see 3 classes before you see that.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Jul 12, 2012 1:39 pm

I agree with Flip...They'll change the numbers for classes and go to 3 classes.

I just don't see Bismarck Shiloh growing to have enough enrollment to be Class A...that one seems a little far-fetched
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:05 pm

Run4Fun2009 wrote:I agree with Flip...They'll change the numbers for classes and go to 3 classes.

I just don't see Bismarck Shiloh growing to have enough enrollment to be Class A...that one seems a little far-fetched


You're both probably right: 3 classes would be instituted.

Kind of weird though that Crosby, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City all used to be Class A in the sixties.

People moving to ND from the South are much more likely to send their kids to Christian/parochial schools. That's why I think schools like Shiloh and Minot Our Redeemers will see a lot of growth.

What has been unfair for years is the existence of four superlarge (for ND) schools: Fargo South, West Fargo, Bismarck, and Minot. Those are the four that should have been in their own class (they would have been in other states). With Fargo South already split, and the other three splits coming (Bismarck won't be a true split), Class A should become more competitive in almost everything as there won't be a school with over 1000 students.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:23 pm

NoDakinSouth wrote:
Run4Fun2009 wrote:I agree with Flip...They'll change the numbers for classes and go to 3 classes.

I just don't see Bismarck Shiloh growing to have enough enrollment to be Class A...that one seems a little far-fetched


You're both probably right: 3 classes would be instituted.

Kind of weird though that Crosby, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City all used to be Class A in the sixties.

People moving to ND from the South are much more likely to send their kids to Christian/parochial schools. That's why I think schools like Shiloh and Minot Our Redeemers will see a lot of growth.

What has been unfair for years is the existence of four superlarge (for ND) schools: Fargo South, West Fargo, Bismarck, and Minot. Those are the four that should have been in their own class (they would have been in other states). With Fargo South already split, and the other three splits coming (Bismarck won't be a true split), Class A should become more competitive in almost everything as there won't be a school with over 1000 students.


Fargo Davies, Fargo South & Fargo North all have over 1000 students right now...and if Fargo continues to grow (especially southward) then Davies will continue to grow in students
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Flip » Thu Jul 12, 2012 11:29 pm

NoDakinSouth wrote:
You're both probably right: 3 classes would be instituted.

Kind of weird though that Crosby, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City all used to be Class A in the sixties.

People moving to ND from the South are much more likely to send their kids to Christian/parochial schools. That's why I think schools like Shiloh and Minot Our Redeemers will see a lot of growth.

What has been unfair for years is the existence of four superlarge (for ND) schools: Fargo South, West Fargo, Bismarck, and Minot. Those are the four that should have been in their own class (they would have been in other states). With Fargo South already split, and the other three splits coming (Bismarck won't be a true split), Class A should become more competitive in almost everything as there won't be a school with over 1000 students.

People that move from the south to ND will not have the money to send their kids to private schools. Money is the reason they are moving to ND and it's not because they have an abundance of it.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Fri Jul 13, 2012 12:11 am

Flip wrote:
NoDakinSouth wrote:
You're both probably right: 3 classes would be instituted.

Kind of weird though that Crosby, Tioga, Stanley, Watford City all used to be Class A in the sixties.

People moving to ND from the South are much more likely to send their kids to Christian/parochial schools. That's why I think schools like Shiloh and Minot Our Redeemers will see a lot of growth.

What has been unfair for years is the existence of four superlarge (for ND) schools: Fargo South, West Fargo, Bismarck, and Minot. Those are the four that should have been in their own class (they would have been in other states). With Fargo South already split, and the other three splits coming (Bismarck won't be a true split), Class A should become more competitive in almost everything as there won't be a school with over 1000 students.

People that move from the south to ND will not have the money to send their kids to private schools. Money is the reason they are moving to ND and it's not because they have an abundance of it.


I just can't see Shiloh or Our Redeemer's adding 200 high schoolers to bump them up to Class A...neither of the schools would have the space to even add on for a student jump like that...
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:55 pm

Run4Fun2009 wrote:Fargo Davies, Fargo South & Fargo North all have over 1000 students right now...and if Fargo continues to grow (especially southward) then Davies will continue to grow in students


Was referring to 10th-12th grade enrollment.

Won't much of South Fargo's growth actually be part of the West Fargo school district, hence the need for another WF HS.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:56 pm

Flip wrote:
NoDakinSouth wrote:People that move from the south to ND will not have the money to send their kids to private schools. Money is the reason they are moving to ND and it's not because they have an abundance of it.


A much higher percentage of eople in the South want their kids to be immersed in the Bible. North Dakotan's, even though most go to church, generally are clueless about the contents of the Bible. Not in the South.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Indy5 » Sat Jul 14, 2012 5:29 pm

I'd say of all these school you have moving up, less than 1/4 of them would. I don't see Shiloh, Ryan, or Our Redeemers moving up. There has been oil activity recently but yet this schools (at least Ryan for sure) have gone down in enrollment. I really dont think that ND will add 13 cities with class A populations
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:09 pm

I could see numbers swell to 24 Class A teams...but not as many as you have above.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:23 pm

Indy5 wrote:I'd say of all these school you have moving up, less than 1/4 of them would. I don't see Shiloh, Ryan, or Our Redeemers moving up. There has been oil activity recently but yet this schools (at least Ryan for sure) have gone down in enrollment. I really dont think that ND will add 13 cities with class A populations


The enrollment increases haven't hardly even begun yet. The enrollment growths are only happening at the grade school level, but these increases are nothing compared to what is coming in future years. For every job in the oil field, eventually 3 jobs will be generated in other areas (in retail, restaurants, real estate, construction, medicine, law, etc)

Look at some of the developments that have been announced:

Plans for Surrey to become a city of 10,000 people.
Plans for Burlington to add 5000 more people
Plans for Springbrook (northeast of WIlliston) to be a city of 10,000. (It's at 100 right now.) Springbrook is in District 8, which is planning a new high school.
Huge development north of Berthold.
Major developments around Stanley, Tioga, Ray, and Crosby.
Watford City to become city of 15,000 or more.
Minot to double in size.
Williston likely to pass or equal Minot in size.
Dickinson to grow to 50,000.

In the year 2000, ND had 18 Class A high schools. About 300,00 lived in Class A towns.

By 2025, ND will have over 1,000,000 people, more than 300,000 more than now. Almost all of those 300,000 people will be in major towns (or small towns that will exceed Wahpeton or Valley City in population). So instead of serving 300,000+ people, Class A will serve 700,000+ people.

But as others have stated, the Class A will probably be split.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Wildcat » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:22 pm

This just sounds like you're taking every western school in the state and assuming they're going to have 300 kids in eight years.

I'll break it down for you on your list:

Williston HS
Williston Bakken HS (new) - Maybe, but I haven't heard any discussion.
WIlliston Williams HS (new rural) - Both schools would have to be maxed out first before they'd build a third. I think a third school in Williston is a pipedream. One day when the oil dies down, three schools will be impossible to sustain. Two is much more realistic. Not only would the first two be maxed out, they'd have to prove that the enrollment at that time was sustainable for a long period of time, not just a flash in the pan.
Williams County (Ray) - Williams County is Ray and Tioga. Both of these towns are too small as it is to assume their gonna jump that high. I sincerely doubt it.
Tioga - See above.
Stanley - A very good possibility. Probably the best possibility of moving up along with Watford, but they were already a good sized school.
Watford City - See above.
Killdeer - This is borderline. I think it could happen, but I have to doubt it.
Lewis&Clark (new refinery by Makoti) - I'd be shocked if this happened too.
New Town - This is very possible.
Crosby - Borderline, like Killdeer.

Southwest Region

Bismarck
Bismarck Century
Bismarck Lincoln (new)
Bismarck St Marys
Bismarck Shiloh - This won't happen. With prices going up to live, prices will go up to attend.
Mandan
Dickinson
Dickinson Roosevelt (new) - I haven't heard discussions, but it may take longer than eight years to get this done. I mean, Dickinson Trinity isn't even reporting a significant rise in enrollment. But being in a Class A town, this is a definite possibility.
South Heart-Belfield - This is a decent possibility. Most people don't realize this co-op is almost 200 kids!
Beach - I sincerely doubt it.

North Central

Minot
Minot Souris (new) - I like your name. This isn't a done deal, but it's very close, I'd say.
Minot Ryan - Nope, but I guess there's an outside shot.
Minot Our Redeemers - This will never happen. See Shiloh Christian.
Des Lacs - Burlington - This actually isn't that outlandish, because they were decently sized already.
Surrey - Nope, they'd have to grow faster than DLB. Don't see that happening.
Berthold - They're already very very small. If the above two work out, maybe. Certainly not by 2020.
Bottineau (oil activity there too) - This could happen, but Bottineau's been dropping in enrollment, even the past couple years since the oil's been here. There may be activity there, but there has to be more than activity. It has to be enough to convince a family to settle there.
Turtle Mountain
Devils Lake
Jamestown - Not sure why Jamestown would ever be put in this league. Hour and a half from Bismarck and Fargo, yet there in a conference where they play everyone three hours a way. At least in the West Region, Bismarck's the same distance as Fargo. Jamestown would not go in this division.

East

Fargo North
Fargo South
Fargo Davies
Fargo Shanley
West Fargo
West Fargo Sheyenne (new)
Central Cass
Wahpeton
Grand Forks Central
Grand Forks Red River[/quote]

Few things to think about:

1) Oil shifts are changing. There are so many people who work "two weeks on, week off" shifts. That allows them to live in Colorado or wherever they lived before and just fly in or drive in from a surrounding state. There are many oil workers who are not settling in ND, they just work here. Their families are back home.

2) Don't assume oil people are gonna spend the extra cash to fill up private schools. It's a nice thought that could help balance out Class A, but it's unlikely.

3) The state's not gonna go nuts with this (like building three high schools in Williston) because of the implications it will bring when the oil leaves.

This is,unfortunately, wishful thinking. Class A could see a bump up to 27 schools maybe, and three conferences with nine teams in them. 40 is a lot, though.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Wildcat » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:03 am

I guess if I saw this happening, which it never will because they'll definitely go to a third class as mentioned before.

But if it did, here's how I would see it shake out, at least for 2020. 25 Class A schools with the West being the weakest conference, obviously. This would of course be with some kind of "top two make state" scenario.

West
Williston
Williston new
Stanley
Watford
Dickinson
Dickinson new

Central
Bis
Century
Bis new
Mandan
St. Mary's
Jamestown

North
Minot
Turtle mt.
DL
Minot new
GFC
GFRR

Southeast
FN
FS
FD
Shanley
WF
WFsheyenne
Wahpeton
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:22 am

Probably should have listed the changes for 2025 or later.

The man camp situation won't last forever. The camps are expensive for the companies and many of the companies want their employees in their own housing. Many of the employees want to bring their families in, but can't afford the current housing cost or even find housing. In more established oil cities like Midland and Odessa in Texas, employees find their own housing.

Look what happened to Beulah. It grew to 3300 people, yet had a high school of 400. The high school population dropped once as the initial employees at the gasification plant went into their 50's. Just like Beulah, there will be a number of towns that will see a surge in school enrollment and then drop off again.

A town like Surrey may grow to 10,000 people based on development plans. That's bigger than Valley City or Devils Lake or Wahpeton. A huge development is going into Burlington, making that town alone at least twice the size of Beulah. Surrey and Des Lacs-Burlington could well be permanent staples of Class A starting in the 2020's.

Some predictions have Williston at 100,000 people, rivaling Fargo for the largest city. Last week a noted oil and gas advisory firm stated that ND production could possibly triple to 2 mill barrels/day by 2025. A whole lot more jobs are needed to support that kind of production. Once its new airport is built, Williston will have more airlines serving it than any other ND city, with connections like Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver, maybe even Calgary etc to support the oil trade.

Williams County School District #8 is a rural district to the north and west of Williston. It currently doesn't have a high school (sends its 9-12 to Williston), but plans to build a high school. One of the developments in that district are set to add 10,000 people to the little town of Spring Brook (pop 150).

Williston is expected to add 1200 kids this year. As the service and retail end of things continues to grow in that town, and housing becomes more available, that type expansion may be normal until 2020 or later. Its possible that by sometime in the 2020's, Williston could be the largest school district in ND. If that becomes true, the Williston area could end up with four large public high schools (3 in Williston and 1 for District 8 ).

Dickinson is projected to grow to 50,000 or more, which likely means two public high schools. There are a number of new industrial plants going in around Dickinson (huge ceramics plant at Gladstone and a diesel refinery near South Heart) as well as a lot of drilling to the north and west. With all the gas plants and drilling going in around Watford City, it will likely be bigger than Jamestown, possibly much larger.

Western ND hasn't even seen the real growth in population yet.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Indy5 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:33 am

I can see Sureey and Burlington both growing a lot since they are right beside Minot. Who knows if their high schools will become class A staples though. Another thing to consider about oil is a lot of these workers are single or aren't old enough to have kids in high school too.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Wed Sep 26, 2012 2:49 pm

West Fargo Sheyenne has chosen a nickname: Mustangs.

http://www.westfargopioneer.com/event/article/id/20560/

Bismarck voters overwhelmingly approved a new high school.

Minot has not yet finalized plans for a new high school.

Watford City is probably only 2-3 years from moving to Class A, based on their growth.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby MARKWALD23 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:29 am

The new high school in Bismarck is Legacy High. That's awful. http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/e ... 963f4.html
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby scoobyx2 » Tue Jan 29, 2013 6:58 pm

MARKWALD23 wrote:The new high school in Bismarck is Legacy High. That's awful. http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/e ... 963f4.html

That name is awful.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Makotifarmguy » Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:28 pm

Of all of those Class B schools listed above, Grafton has double and even triple the populations of those cities and they are Class B. So it will take some big population spikes of families moving to those areas to create the impact some of you are talking about. Not saying it won't happen, but there are a lot of factors to take in. Here are a couple that come to mind.

The white collar oil field workers are buying homes in Bismarck. That will play a bit of an impact as well.

Some of those workers have decided to move famillies out of that area because of crime or lack of housing. The outer rim cities will find some families moving in that aren't directly impacted by the oil fields. Towns along Highway 52 (Drake, Anamoose, Harvey), 83 (Washburn, Max, Garrison) , and 2 (Rugby, Towner) come to mind.

The other thing to think about is how proactive their city councils and economic development directors are in each of these areas. If city councils are making large changes to accomodate and adding pieces to their community to entice them to come, it could change where people decide to live. Just ask the people of Detroit Lakes the impact Perham had on them when they implemented the new activity center, 27 hole golf course, new housing addition, and the whole renovation of their downtown.

Changes are definitely coming and it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:34 am

Did not get the new BisMarck HS name correct but Lincoln was used for a new elementary school.

Watfords enrollment has been growing fast since fall. WC is now projected to be 20000 people.

Dickinson to almost 50000. Williston larger yet, wIth the county to get near 100, 000. Tioga, Stanley, Killdeer,SOUTH Heart, Crosby, Alexander, and Beach all have huge pro jected Increases.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sun Mar 03, 2013 2:30 pm

We know that we'll soon have new class A high schools in West Fargo and Bismarck. Minot's just a matter of time, I think.

Watford City seems primed to grow into class A (the cutoff is 325 students in grades 9-12).
I would rank Stanley, New Town and Des Lacs-Burlington as the next most likely to grow above 325.
I don't know as much about Central Cass and Kindred, but they would seem to be the two candidates out east.
I think it's a bit early to predict class A status for the remaining schools on that list.
The private schools may see modest growth, but I can't predict that they'll cross 325.
Beach is on the outskirts of the oil bubble and doesn't belong on the list. Divide County and Lewis and Clark (Makoti) are real long shots, I'd say.

The communities are growing more rapidly than the schools. Williston was trying to prepare for up to 1200 new students this year, but their actual count was around +300, I believe. Also, the elementary grades are filling faster than the high school grades in the oil boom towns. It's those large elementary grades that will push these schools beyond 325 as those students move up the ranks.

Will the ranks of class A swell to 25 schools, or will North Dakotans decide that now is the time for a three class system? I think that depends upon the timing and growth of these schools. If 4-5 schools are set to cross 325 in a 5 year period, I think the schools listed above could team up with mid-sized supporters of 3 classes such as Valley City and Beulah to come up with a plan that would have support across the state.

If Watford City crosses 325 by itself, any three class plan might just be seen as a bailout plan for the Wolves.

A school's enrollment has to stay above 325 for two consecutive years to bump to 'A.' I think that as soon as Watford is set to cross 325, these discussions will really ramp up.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby NoDakinSouth » Mon Jan 13, 2014 3:50 pm

South Prairie (district south of Minot) approved a high school for the first time.

Nedrose (SE Minot) will be voting on a separate high school distinct from Minot

Minot defeated a new high school, probably because it was viewed as gold plated.

Williston District #8 (rural Williston) could yet build a HS rather than send their 9-12 to Williston.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Mighty-Mouse » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:59 am

NoDakinSouth wrote:South Prairie (district south of Minot) approved a high school for the first time.

Nedrose (SE Minot) will be voting on a separate high school distinct from Minot

Minot defeated a new high school, probably because it was viewed as gold plated.

Williston District #8 (rural Williston) could yet build a HS rather than send their 9-12 to Williston.


The reason Minot defeated the new school was, they wanted to increase taxed "only" on home owner instead of an area tax. The home owners have enough taxes on them since mine went up 50% last year... Minot school district has the money but they are sitting on it. They built a new Ramstad middle school which looks better then the high school. Why didn't they use the new Ramstad as the new high school and move Ramstad to Central. Then they could have 2 high schools from 9-12 grade in one building... Just my observation.
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Re: Class A in 2020 - Enormous changes coming

Postby Flip » Sat Apr 29, 2023 11:00 am

It's fun to look at some of these predictions.
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