In looking over the first 4 weeks of the 9 man season I found that 113 games were played on the field, and 1 forfeit. Of these 113 games, only 12 were decided by one score (8pts) or less. I know that you can have a good close game that jumps to over a one score game at the end, but by the same token you can have a game fall to within a score late too.
I started looking up these numbers after looking at some predictions that people were making. In looking at one posters predictions, they are thinking that their should be 7 close games this week. I hope they are correct!!! But, in looking at the numbers, on average we have 23 games on Friday night in region play. In the 3 weeks of region play the greatest number of games played to a one score conclusion has been 3.
I love going to games, but it seems like more often than not, you pretty much know who will win before it is kicked off. If the numbers hold, you have an 11% chance of seeing a one score game tonight...