North Dakota Preps

There are actually a couple Class A teams that can mathematically clinch playoff berths this week...

Week 6 Playoff Clinching Scenarios

No teams in Regions 1 and 2 can mathematically clinch this week

Region 3

• Westhope/Newburg/Glenburn clinches a playoff berth with a win AND a losses by BOTH Des Lacs-Burlington and Berthold/Our Redeemers

Region 4

• Hazen clinches a playoff berth with a win

I think Park River can clinch playoff birth this weekend with a win over Rugby too! They would be 3-0 with two games remaining and everyone else having one loss or more.

B-oldtimer wrote:I think Park River can clinch playoff birth this weekend with a win over Rugby too! They would be 3-0 with two games remaining and everyone else having one loss or more.

Strangely enough, if Rugby were to pull a miracle out of somewhere (I'm saying it would take a miracle. Don't get too mad.) the same logic still applies.

yes I guess your right but I have seen both teams play and I guess in my mind that Park River is top team in Region 2 this year. My feeling is Park River is not going to be challenged until it gets into the playoffs and I think that will be third round of the playoffs. Class A football in the east is made up Park River and Carrington as the top two teams with Larimore and Oakes or Northern Cass in second tier with the question how much they can improve to catch the top two teams. Rest of class A teams are fairly close in level of play but not close to even competing with the top teams and if you asked me I would guess they not compete with a lot of top 9 man teams in the state.

HammerTime wrote:

B-oldtimer wrote:I think Park River can clinch playoff birth this weekend with a win over Rugby too! They would be 3-0 with two games remaining and everyone else having one loss or more.

Strangely enough, if Rugby were to pull a miracle out of somewhere (I'm saying it would take a miracle. Don't get too mad.) the same logic still applies.

Come to think of it, Park River/Fordville-Lankin can "logically" clinch with a win due to the fact Rugby and Larimore (two of the teams that PRFL beat) still have to play each other. The scenarios I posted are only based the clinching scenarios on mathematical factors at the moment.

On the other hand, there are still some scenarios in which Rugby would still be out of the playoffs even if they won tonight. One being if Rugby loses their two remaining games against Harvey and Larimore AND Park River wins out (4-1) AND Larimore wins out (4-1) AND Harvey wins 2 of their last 3 (3-2 - losing to PRFL). Park River would be the #1 seed, Larimore the #2 seed, and Harvey the #3 seed as only three (3) teams get in from each region in Class A.

caserace0710 wrote:

HammerTime wrote:

B-oldtimer wrote:I think Park River can clinch playoff birth this weekend with a win over Rugby too! They would be 3-0 with two games remaining and everyone else having one loss or more.

Strangely enough, if Rugby were to pull a miracle out of somewhere (I'm saying it would take a miracle. Don't get too mad.) the same logic still applies.

Come to think of it, Park River/Fordville-Lankin can "logically" clinch with a win due to the fact Rugby and Larimore (two of the teams that PRFL beat) still have to play each other. The scenarios I posted are only based the clinching scenarios on mathematical factors at the moment.

On the other hand, there are still some scenarios in which Rugby would still be out of the playoffs even if they won tonight. One being if Rugby loses their two remaining games against Harvey and Larimore AND Park River wins out (4-1) AND Larimore wins out (4-1) AND Harvey wins 2 of their last 3 (3-2 - losing to PRFL). Park River would be the #1 seed, Larimore the #2 seed, and Harvey the #3 seed as only three (3) teams get in from each region in Class A.

Rugby and Park River play tonight. It's possible Rugby could win. There's a a reason they play the game. Both are 2-0 in region play. The only way Rugby doesn't get into the playoffs is if they lose all three of their next three games. They win 1, they get the 3 seed. They win 2, they get the 2 seed. They win them all, they get the bye. Same applies for PRFL.

HammerTime wrote:

caserace0710 wrote:

HammerTime wrote:

B-oldtimer wrote:I think Park River can clinch playoff birth this weekend with a win over Rugby too! They would be 3-0 with two games remaining and everyone else having one loss or more.

Strangely enough, if Rugby were to pull a miracle out of somewhere (I'm saying it would take a miracle. Don't get too mad.) the same logic still applies.

Come to think of it, Park River/Fordville-Lankin can "logically" clinch with a win due to the fact Rugby and Larimore (two of the teams that PRFL beat) still have to play each other. The scenarios I posted are only based the clinching scenarios on mathematical factors at the moment.

On the other hand, there are still some scenarios in which Rugby would still be out of the playoffs even if they won tonight. One being if Rugby loses their two remaining games against Harvey and Larimore AND Park River wins out (4-1) AND Larimore wins out (4-1) AND Harvey wins 2 of their last 3 (3-2 - losing to PRFL). Park River would be the #1 seed, Larimore the #2 seed, and Harvey the #3 seed as only three (3) teams get in from each region in Class A.

Rugby and Park River play tonight. It's possible Rugby could win. There's a a reason they play the game. Both are 2-0 in region play. The only way Rugby doesn't get into the playoffs is if they lose all three of their next three games. They win 1, they get the 3 seed. They win 2, they get the 2 seed. They win them all, they get the bye. Same applies for PRFL.

Rugby has their work cut out for them to end the season in Region 2. They get PR-FL, H-WC & Larimore...tough stretch...they'll be lucky to get 2 out of 3. Easiest game in there is H-WC and that should be close.

PRFL gets the #1 seed Harvey/Rugby decides the third seed tonight. PRFL ,Larimore, ?

madseason wrote:PRFL gets the #1 seed Harvey/Rugby decides the third seed tonight. PRFL ,Larimore, ?

Larimore beats Carrington PRFL gets more than one Home playoff game. Don't think I've ever cheered for Larimore. GO Polar Bears!! Larimore/PRFL . Revenge factor? Carrington PRFL revenge factor? PRFL lost state Championship to Carrington in Leigon Ball PRFL Baseball players play football.

madseason wrote:

madseason wrote:PRFL gets the #1 seed Harvey/Rugby decides the third seed tonight. PRFL ,Larimore, ?

Larimore beats Carrington PRFL gets more than one Home playoff game. Don't think I've ever cheered for Larimore. GO Polar Bears!! Larimore/PRFL . Revenge factor? Carrington PRFL revenge factor? PRFL lost state Championship to Carrington in Leigon Ball PRFL Baseball players play football.

If Larimore doesn't win first playoff game by 30, they have no chance against Carrington in second round.

Here are my predictions for playoff scenarios:
Barring no major upsets there appears to be 2 games that have significant playoff implications.
Ellendale/Edgeley-Kulm (2-2; 3-4) @ Oakes (2-2; 3-4) in region 1 with the winner getting the 3rd seed and an away game at Larimore. I am picking Oakes in this one mostly because they are at home.

Hazen (3-1; 5-2) @ Southern McLean (3-1; 4-3) in region 4 with the winner getting the 2nd seed and the loser getting to travel to Velva. If I have learned one thing about HS sports if you give an underdog a reason to believe they can win - they will push the favorite to the max. I think SM will grab this opportunity with a win over Hazen.



Region 1: 1-Carrington 2-Northern Cass 3-Oakes
Region 2: 1-Park River 2-Larimore 3-Harvey
Region 3: 1-Westhope 2-Velva 3-Ryan
Region 4: 1-Killdeer 2-Southern McLean 3-Hazen

I'm just curious, as it seems inferred above and I also read in the Jamestown Sun that were Oak Grove to upset Northern Cass, there could be tie breaker scenarios, regardless of the result in Oakes. I very well may just be dense, but I can't see how this would be the case. Oak Grove, with no wins in the region, can't qualify for the playoffs, even if they beat NC. NC, at 4 and 1 in the region, is locked in at #2 in Region 1, regardless of if they were to lose to OG. The winner of Oakes vs EEK will be 3 and 2 in the Region. Even if Carrington (5 and 0 and locked in at the 1 seed) would lose to MNS, MNS would still only be 2 and 3. OG over NC and MNS over Carrington would both seem highly unlikely based on what has transpired to date this season but i'd like to understand a scenario where the Oakes vs EEK winner would not make the playoffs. By the way, its pretty cool to see EEK even mentioned in the playoff conversation after where that program has been in its short history. Jon Schiele and his staff deserve a ton of credit. Looking forward to battling a tough Oakes squad on Friday.

EHS1998 wrote:I'm just curious, as it seems inferred above and I also read in the Jamestown Sun that were Oak Grove to upset Northern Cass, there could be tie breaker scenarios, regardless of the result in Oakes. I very well may just be dense, but I can't see how this would be the case. Oak Grove, with no wins in the region, can't qualify for the playoffs, even if they beat NC. NC, at 4 and 1 in the region, is locked in at #2 in Region 1, regardless of if they were to lose to OG. The winner of Oakes vs EEK will be 3 and 2 in the Region. Even if Carrington (5 and 0 and locked in at the 1 seed) would lose to MNS, MNS would still only be 2 and 3. OG over NC and MNS over Carrington would both seem highly unlikely based on what has transpired to date this season but i'd like to understand a scenario where the Oakes vs EEK winner would not make the playoffs. By the way, its pretty cool to see EEK even mentioned in the playoff conversation after where that program has been in its short history. Jon Schiele and his staff deserve a ton of credit. Looking forward to battling a tough Oakes squad on Friday.

Carrington & Northern Cass have already clinched spots...and the only scenario that matters in Region 1 is the EEK vs. Oakes game.

Here's what EHS1998 was talking about from the Jamestown Sun: "The Thunder need Northern Cass (5-1) to beat Fargo Oak Grove (1-5) next week. If that happens, E-E-K's game at Oakes the same night will determine who gets the third and final playoff spot. An Oak Grove upset could create a tiebreaking scenario."

There is NO tiebreaking scenario possible...its winner of EEK/Oakes travels to Larimore; loser - season ends.

Thanks for confirming Run.

Run4Fun2009 wrote:

EHS1998 wrote:I'm just curious, as it seems inferred above and I also read in the Jamestown Sun that were Oak Grove to upset Northern Cass, there could be tie breaker scenarios, regardless of the result in Oakes. I very well may just be dense, but I can't see how this would be the case. Oak Grove, with no wins in the region, can't qualify for the playoffs, even if they beat NC. NC, at 4 and 1 in the region, is locked in at #2 in Region 1, regardless of if they were to lose to OG. The winner of Oakes vs EEK will be 3 and 2 in the Region. Even if Carrington (5 and 0 and locked in at the 1 seed) would lose to MNS, MNS would still only be 2 and 3. OG over NC and MNS over Carrington would both seem highly unlikely based on what has transpired to date this season but i'd like to understand a scenario where the Oakes vs EEK winner would not make the playoffs. By the way, its pretty cool to see EEK even mentioned in the playoff conversation after where that program has been in its short history. Jon Schiele and his staff deserve a ton of credit. Looking forward to battling a tough Oakes squad on Friday.

Carrington & Northern Cass have already clinched spots...and the only scenario that matters in Region 1 is the EEK vs. Oakes game.

Here's what EHS1998 was talking about from the Jamestown Sun: "The Thunder need Northern Cass (5-1) to beat Fargo Oak Grove (1-5) next week. If that happens, E-E-K's game at Oakes the same night will determine who gets the third and final playoff spot. An Oak Grove upset could create a tiebreaking scenario."

There is NO tiebreaking scenario possible...its winner of EEK/Oakes travels to Larimore; loser - season ends.

well I got a bit ahead of myself...winner moves on to play, most likely, at Larimore...there are a few more possibilities in R2...but I don't see H-WC defeating Park River this week.

Run4Fun2009 wrote:

Run4Fun2009 wrote:

EHS1998 wrote:I'm just curious, as it seems inferred above and I also read in the Jamestown Sun that were Oak Grove to upset Northern Cass, there could be tie breaker scenarios, regardless of the result in Oakes. I very well may just be dense, but I can't see how this would be the case. Oak Grove, with no wins in the region, can't qualify for the playoffs, even if they beat NC. NC, at 4 and 1 in the region, is locked in at #2 in Region 1, regardless of if they were to lose to OG. The winner of Oakes vs EEK will be 3 and 2 in the Region. Even if Carrington (5 and 0 and locked in at the 1 seed) would lose to MNS, MNS would still only be 2 and 3. OG over NC and MNS over Carrington would both seem highly unlikely based on what has transpired to date this season but i'd like to understand a scenario where the Oakes vs EEK winner would not make the playoffs. By the way, its pretty cool to see EEK even mentioned in the playoff conversation after where that program has been in its short history. Jon Schiele and his staff deserve a ton of credit. Looking forward to battling a tough Oakes squad on Friday.

Carrington & Northern Cass have already clinched spots...and the only scenario that matters in Region 1 is the EEK vs. Oakes game.

Here's what EHS1998 was talking about from the Jamestown Sun: "The Thunder need Northern Cass (5-1) to beat Fargo Oak Grove (1-5) next week. If that happens, E-E-K's game at Oakes the same night will determine who gets the third and final playoff spot. An Oak Grove upset could create a tiebreaking scenario."

There is NO tiebreaking scenario possible...its winner of EEK/Oakes travels to Larimore; loser - season ends.

well I got a bit ahead of myself...winner moves on to play, most likely, at Larimore...there are a few more possibilities in R2...but I don't see H-WC defeating Park River this week.

Here is what I've come up with:
Region 1
Carrington is the #1 and Northern Cass is the #2 already
Winner of Oakes/EEK gets the #3 seed

Region 2
Park River/F-L has already clinched
Park River/F-L scenarios
#1 seed: A win OR Rugby loss
#2 seed: A loss AND Rugby wins
Harvey/Wells Co scenarios
#1 seed: A win AND Larimore loss
#3 seed: A Larimore win OR Larimore loss by fewer than 17 points
Larimore scenarios
#2 seed: A win OR loss by fewer than 17 points
#3 seed: Lose by 17 or more points AND Park River/F-L wins by 2 or more points
Rugby scenarios
#2 seed: A win by 17 or more points AND Park River/F-L wins by 2 or more points
#3 seed: A win AND Park River/F-L loss

If Park River/F-L wins by exactly 1 point AND Rugby wins by 17 or more points, then I believe that the #2 seed will be drawn out of a hat with head-to-head result between the other two teams determining the #3 seed. This is due to the fact that Harvey, Larimore, and Rugby all would have a 0 PD against each other and each team would have a +17 PD against all teams in the region.

Region 3
Minot Ryan, Westhope/Newburg/Glenburn, and Velva/Sawyer are the three teams representing this region. All three teams are 3-1 and are 1-1 against each other.
Minot Ryan beat WNG 34-21
Velva/Sawyer beat Minot Ryan 36-6
WNG beat Velva/Sawyer 42-22

If all three teams finish with the same record in region play OR WNG wins AND Velva/Sawyer and Minot Ryan both lose:
#1 WNG (wins #2 tiebreaker with a +4 PD against Minot Ryan and Velva/Sawyer)
#2 Velva/Sawyer (based on H2H over Minot Ryan)
#3 Minot Ryan

If Minot Ryan and WNG both win AND Velva/Sawyer loses OR Minot Ryan wins AND Velva/Sawyer and WNG both lose:
#1 Minot Ryan (based on H2H over WNG)
#2 WNG
#3 Velva/Sawyer

If Velva/Sawyer and Minot Ryan both win AND WNG loses OR Velva/Saywer wins AND Minot Ryan and WNG both lose:
#1 Velva/Sawyer (based on H2H over Minot Ryan)
#2 Minot Ryan
#3 WNG

Region 4
Killdeer, Hazen, and Southern McLean have all clinched playoff berths with Killdeer clinching the #1 seed
The Hazen/Southern McLean winner clinches the #2 seed, loser gets the #3 seed

How does PRFL end up being a #2 seed with a loss and a Rugby win?

Rivershark wrote:How does PRFL end up being a #2 seed with a loss and a Rugby win?

Both PRFL and HWC would both be 4-1 in the region while Larimore and Rugby would both be 3-2 in the region. HWC gets the #1 seed based on H2H victory over PRFL. PRFL would be the #2 and Rugby would be the #3 based on H2H victory over Larimore.

The odds of this happening though are very slim...

caserace0710 wrote:

Rivershark wrote:How does PRFL end up being a #2 seed with a loss and a Rugby win?

Both PRFL and HWC would both be 4-1 in the region while Larimore and Rugby would both be 3-2 in the region. HWC gets the #1 seed based on H2H victory over PRFL. PRFL would be the #2 and Rugby would be the #3 based on H2H victory over Larimore.

The odds of this happening though are very slim...

Slim to none...

So...what you're saying is...that there is a chance?

Yes there is still a chance that Harvey/Wells County pulls off one of the biggest upsets in North Dakota High School football history

caserace0710 wrote:Yes there is still a chance that Harvey/Wells County pulls off one of the biggest upsets in North Dakota High School football history

Harvey beat Rugby 30-0 last week and PRFL didn't look sharp against Lakota/Edmore. Gotta give Dakota Prairie credit for coming out and showing some fight. Could be a pretty tough game for PRFL. So I wouldn't call it that big an upset if Harvey won.

madseason wrote:

caserace0710 wrote:Yes there is still a chance that Harvey/Wells County pulls off one of the biggest upsets in North Dakota High School football history

Harvey beat Rugby 30-0 last week and PRFL didn't look sharp against Lakota/Edmore. Gotta give Dakota Prairie credit for coming out and showing some fight. Could be a pretty tough game for PRFL. So I wouldn't call it that big an upset if Harvey won.

That's crazy. Harvey is not going to bet PRFL. Take away the penalties and cheap shots against Lakota and it would have been a bigger blowout. Now PRFL will be sitting out a few players due to injuries, but they are too deep all around. You knock one down and there are 2 more behind him.

Rivershark wrote:

madseason wrote:

caserace0710 wrote:Yes there is still a chance that Harvey/Wells County pulls off one of the biggest upsets in North Dakota High School football history

Harvey beat Rugby 30-0 last week and PRFL didn't look sharp against Lakota/Edmore. Gotta give Dakota Prairie credit for coming out and showing some fight. Could be a pretty tough game for PRFL. So I wouldn't call it that big an upset if Harvey won.

That's crazy. Harvey is not going to bet PRFL. Take away the penalties and cheap shots against Lakota and it would have been a bigger blowout. Now PRFL will be sitting out a few players due to injuries, but they are too deep all around. You knock one down and there are 2 more behind him.

PRFL lost another key starter in Lakota. But looks like the other starter out will be back this week. 30-0 Harvey/Rugby may have been a different game if Rugby had all their starters. I'm not sure but I saw a few leave and not return for Rugby when they played PRFL. ?? I know PRFL is going to win but I think they need a wakeup call like last year (loss to Larimore) I think they are coasting and when they hit Carrington they will lose if not focused and hungry. But I think Larimore/PRFL in the east championship is also a possibility.