Playoff picture in the East

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Playoff picture in the East

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:25 am

Question. Shanley and Lisbon are going to be 1 and 2 in the east, but what about 3 and 4?

Central Cass should win out against Kindred and OG. That gives them a 4-3 record.

Grafton will probably lose to Shanley, and VC will probably beat Wahp in the final week.

So, that means if VC beats Grafton in week 8, there could be a 3 way tie for playoff spots 3 and 4. Central Cass, VC, and Grafton would all be 4-3 and they would have all beaten each other in heads up play. CC over VC, VC over Grafton, and Grafton over CC.

So what is the tiebreaker? Anybody know?
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:13 am

My understanding is that you break a 3 way tie by looking at point differential among the three teams when they played each other. Largest point differential gets the #3 seed.

Now you're down to two teams tied for the #4 seed, and you go back to head-to-head.

Given that, here's the breakdown. If Valley City beats Grafton, and there are no other major upsets, it creates a 3 way tie with Valley City, Grafton and Central Cass

Central Cass beat Valley City by 4 and lost to Grafton by 12, for a point differential of -8
Grafton beat Central Cass by 12 and sits +12
Valley City lost to Central Cass by 4 and sits -4

therefore

If Valley City beats Grafton by 9 or more points, they will win the #3 seed on point differential. Grafton would get the #4 seed, having defeated Central Cass head to head.

If Valley City beats Grafton by 8 points, they will tie Grafton on point differential at +4, with both teams ahead of Central Cass in points. I would assume they break this two way tie by going back to head to head, and Valley City would get the #3 seed. Grafton gets the 4 seed again due to their head to head win.

If Valley City beats Grafton by 7 points or less, Grafton would get the #3 seed on point differential. Central Cass would get the #4 seed due to their head to head win over Valley City.


To me, it looks like Valley City has to beat Grafton by 8+ points to make the playoffs, and if they do, they'll be the 3 seed.

Looks like Grafton is sitting pretty good. I don't see a scenario where they would miss the playoffs. If they win, they're the #3 seed. If they lose, they'll be #3 or #4, depending on the margin.

Central Cass is rooting for Grafton to either win the game or keep it within 7. The best they can do is the #4 seed.

Clear as mud?

And if I'm wrong, can someone correct me?
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:25 am

Very well explained, Bisonguy. Thanks.
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:43 am

Barring other major upsets:

If Valley City beats Grafton by 8+
1) Shanley
2) Lisbon
3) Valley City
4) Grafton

If Valley City beats Grafton by 7 or less
1) Shanley
2) Lisbon
3) Grafton
4) Central Cass

If Grafton beats Valley City
1) Shanley
2) Lisbon
3) Grafton
4) Central Cass
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:51 pm

And even if Valley City does beat Grafton by 9, they still might have some trouble with Wahpeton. The Wahpeton vs Central Cass game was close, and the Valley City vs Central Cass game was close. So, I don't rate Wahpeton as that bad of a football team.

But, I guess the bottom line is that Valley City holds their own destiny. If they beat Grafton by 9, and beat Wahpeton they should get in. Central Cass has to win out, and get some help from either Grafton or Wahpeton.
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 2:54 pm

I think the magic number for VC is 8, agree old63?

The way I had it broken down, VC can win by 8 and it's as good as winning by 9.

An 8 point win creates a three way tie by record (VC, Grafton, and Central Cass), and a two way tie in point differential between VC and Grafton.

Two way ties are broken by head to head record, which VC will have.

Valley City needs to win by 8+. Agree?

I guess it doesn't matter if we agree, it matters if I'm interpreting the HS tiebreakers correctly. I think we've got it right though.
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 4:53 pm

Yup, you're right. 8 would be the point.
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Re: Playoff picture in the East

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Oct 14, 2010 9:53 pm

1. Shanley 6-0 (8-0)
2. Lisbon 5-1 (6-2)
3. Grafton 4-2 (5-3)
4. Valley City 3-3 (4-4)
5. Wahpeton 2-4 (2-6)
6. Kindred 2-4 (2-6)
7. Central Cass 2-4 (4-4)
8. Oak Grove 0-6 (0-8)
Email ND HS Scores to: ndhsscores@yahoo.com
THANKS!
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