Realignment talk: Here we go

[Bisonguy06]

Steve, I have a numbers question for you because it seems like you know your stuff:

Fargo South is essentially being split in half to create Davies. In two years, how big will those schools be? Are we sure that South and Davies will both be bigger high schools than Williston, Jamestown, and Dickinson?

It's all a numbers game, and this plan wouldn't work in two years if Williston, Jamestown, and Dickinson aren't actually the three smallest AAA schools.

[steve34]

First, NorthDakota11, that's the most rediculous idea yet. This year's AA class was the most competitive class from top to bottom in the state. And now you want to wreck it by making the top third play the biggest in the state. I guess the 8-6 game between VC and Grafton or the 14-13 game between Wahpeton and Central Cass wasn't good enough. You want Bismarck 65, VC 0, or Central 55, Devils Lake 20. You obviously don't have a clue.

Answers: Each of Davies and South are expected to have a total of around 900 kids. The current male enrollment numbers have Williston with 400 boys even. South has 1037. Split it in half, and each is still larger, and remember, based on the location of Davies in Fargo (south of the city on the west side of I-29), a few stragglers from West Fargo will end up there too.

You can see the numbers for yourself here:

http://www.ndhsaa.org/files/0910_FB_Divisions.pdf

Again, NorthDakota11, what are you smoking? Let's break the best system of any form of athletics we have in the state?

[Bisonguy06]

Interesting numbers, and South and Davies will only get bigger down the road.

I would love to hear the Williston, Dickinson, and Jamestown perspectives on this. I don't think these towns see themselves as second-tier schools and communities in North Dakota, but I can't really speak for them. It will probably take these schools a couple weeks to digest this plan and formulate an opinion. It seems like Dickinson has had quite a bit of recent success in other sports (basketball and baseball come to mind). They're also a AAA playoff team this year. Jamestown and Williston haven't made much noise in football recently.

This is a tough one. A lot of the arguments made for beefing up AA football can be made for expanding AAA football as well. Fargo Shanley played Grand Forks Red River to a one touchdown game this year (on the road, I think). GFRR qualified for the playoffs as the #3 team out east in AAA this year. #4 out east is Fargo North, who went 2-3 in league play and 2-7 overall. Is it a stretch to think that Shanley or Wahpeton would've been a AAA playoff team this year?

[steve34]

It is a complex issue. Williston would probably go for it. I say that because a couple weeks ago, I caught the Bismarck vs. Williston broadcast. The announcers were supplied with the numbers from Williston, and were talking about them being the smallest. I think Williston thought there would be a chance to move down when Davies comes in. There would still be 12 up that way.

Jamestown is mixed. That's a quote from a source at Jamestown High School. They would consider it. One media member in Jamestown is in favor.

No word from Dickinson.

[NorthDakota11]

I'm smoking the same thing you are Steve34... I called your supplier up... I told him I want the same thing that guy who is obviously from one of the larger AA schools that doesn't want anything to do with AAA on Preps (because to him being competitive is WINNING ALL THE TIME) is smoking... he hooked me up... Man this is some good stuff... now that i'm done acting like a 12 yr old, i'll reiterate some of the things I pointed out in my last post.

Would Watford City and Hazen water down AA? How about Velva or Harvey most years?
- I don't think there is any doubt in anyones mind that Hazen and Watford could still play at a very high level one class up they would make AA stronger.
- Velva and Harvey could have been competitive at AA for years now.

Would Waph be a playoff team in the East AAA this year? Shanley?

- Waph I think is an obvious yes
- Shanley possibly

You're telling me that there isn't a 1/3 of AA right now that couldn't help AAA out so that they would have a 2-7 team going to the Playoffs... let me say that again... 2-7.... Wow!!!... you're telling me a team that is 2-7 could make a run and win a state title at 5-7... thats not even mediocre... a 2-7 team doesn't deserve to make the playoffs...

I'm willing to bet that there are AT LEAST 3 teams in AA this year that could have won more then 2 games at the AAA level this year... and they are Waph, Shanley, Devils Lake and a fourth maybe Trinity... Wow what do you know... Three of the bigger schools in AA... and guess what... they'd probably make the playoffs in AAA... isn't that competing Steve?

[steve34]

The reason why a 2-7 team is in the playoffs is because AAA takes 8 of 12 teams. If you're gonna take 2/3 of the class, chances are some bad records will get in. Easily fixed by allowing an extra week of regular season games and pairing the playoffs down to six teams.

You're obviously an A fan that's stuff because Watford and Hazen got to move down. You have a right to be, but you're wrong to try to wreck the best thing football has had, a four division system, and wrong to put the screws to some AA schools that are definitely where they belong this season. Plus, look at the future:

FACT: Shanley is averaging about 14 players a class, in the junior high level. Thats barely 40 total players available in just a couple of years.

FACT: Wahpeton has 17 kids playing football in 7th and 8th grade TOTAL last year. Low by even Wahpeton standards, but still well below AAA status.

Those teams are the best available this year to move up and compete. With numbers like that, they won't in a few years, and that's why they both accepted the move down.

The proof is in the pudding: AA was just simply an awesome class this year. You would choose to ruin it. Rediculous.

[ndlionsfan]

I think DLB went to the A playoffs last year with a 1-7 record if I remember right. There was a lot of talk about it on here. This year Ellendale made the 9man playoffs with a 3-6 record. All the classes of fball in ND are small and take too many teams to the playoffs in my opinion. I think the playoffs should be set up so only the top tier teams can make it out of their regions and no byes....every team should have to earn every win.

[NorthDakota11]

Good for you Steve... you can feel good about AA... while the two other 11 man classes are an absolute joke... prove that statement wrong... you have a 2-7 team making the playoffs in east AAA... and two teams that should still be playing at the AA level KILLING everyone but each other at the A level...

Be proud of yourself and what you've made of AA... after that, how about you start thinking about the other 70% of the schools in the state...

FACT: Devils Lake's numbers are GREAT this year...

[steve34]

FACT: Devils Lake has 22 seniors. Then, their numbers are down.

FACT: Harvey, Velva, Stanley, and Killdeer opted up after they were moved down. Blame Watford City and Hazen for taking the easy way out. Hate the players, not the game. If they want to dude out and not defend their status at the AA level, no one can fix that.

This system is the best for everyone involved. Not 20%, not 30%, not 50%, everyone. The proof is there. If 2-7 and 3-6 teams can get it, as mentioned above, and your team didn't, you have bigger problems than the current system, period. AA was awesome. A was very competitive. There were point-spread ties in at least two regions, and Harvey, last year's champ, was the #3 seed in their region. Your argument has no leg to stand on.

[Bisonguy06]

The move to play up a division is worthy of praise, but it's not fair to blame or rip Watford or Hazen for playing 'A' football this year. The NDHSAA moved the goalposts and changed the division cutoff lines. They are playing where their enrollment puts them according to NDHSAA guidelines, like 90+% of the schools in this state. We can't call that "taking the easy way out."

I think the jury is still out on whether last year's reshuffling was good or bad. It may have been good for AA but bad for A ball. AA has been very competitive, but three of the top four seeds are teams recently moved down from AAA. And I'll be watching the 'A' scoreboard very closely to see if Watford City and Hazen steamroll through the playoffs or if they get beat.

If we're all about "looking to the future" here, we better take the three class football idea a little more seriously. Sadly, most ND schools (private and public) are going through the same thing as Wahpeton and Shanley. We're going to keep seeing more co-ops and fewer teams. Trimming AAA again probably helps preserve the four class system a few more years, but I think there will be a day when we're back to A, B, and 9 man football. Not yet, but not ridiculous!

[NDplayin]

The more I think about it, the more I like this plan.... It's growing on me.

Steven, C'mon man, what type of game are you trying to play on here? You were the one who started this post, and I have a strange feeling that you knew about this plan a long time ago... you were just waiting for the newspaper article to give you the smoke screen necessary to introduce it on preps. Heck, I wouldn't even be a bit suprised if you and the Devils Lake superintentent were in the same room at the same time when this plan was on the drawing board.

You have a particular talent for responding to the posts you want, and conveniently ignoring others. You have called others out on particular points they have made, but the best points remain unanswered. I acknowledge that Devils Lake is in an uncomfortable position. Either they fight an uphill battle in AAA, or they are automatically labeled as the 'bullies' of AA. None-the-less, I am curious, do you honestly believe this plan benefits ND football, or do you believe it benifits Devils Lake High School? There have been arguements made about non-conference scheduling for AAA, but I don't think its smart for us to allow what would be convienent for the smallest of the four classes to impact the other three classes in such a way. I think there are several ideas to help AAA with any scheduling problems that don't affect the rest of the state, I will be happy to discuss those at any time.

We also need to consider that success isn't 100% about enrollment. Its about programs. Thats why some schools with a low enrollment in their division have a tradition of success and others with larger enrollments do not. We can't and never will be able to make every team in every division competitive by playing with numbers. We need to quit trying.

Here's a concept I think you should start to embrace: The top 12 enrolment schools (13 with the addition of Davies) in North Dakota all look like each other. They all offer essentially the same activities. They all have the extra activities that we don't typically see in a lot of schools, like swimming and diving, gymnastics, orchestra, soccer, and debate. They are a perfect class with each other. Breaking up that nice group just because Devils Lake is too scared to play AAA would be a travesty. If Williston, Dickinson, and Jamestown didn’t think they belonged in AAA this proposal would have come from them instead of Devils Lake.

[steve34]

First of all, I'm not from Devils Lake. I don't go to school at/work for/coach at/care about Devils Lake High School.

Second, I haven't avoided any post here. When I've been asked for numbers, I've supplied them, and supplied the source. I've debated the issues that have been raised.

Third, you simply don't understand the scheduling issues. Even with the precious 14-member class you suggest (Davies + Devils Lake to current AAA), the scheduling issues for AAA are difficult. Two seven team regions allow for six games in the region. You can set up a scheduling alliance for three schools from the east to play three from the west in one group, three more from each in the other. That leaves two schools, one from each region, out. 14 is not a good answer.

With 12, four games are non-league. 16 inflates the class with too many weak sisters.

10 leaves no real weak sisters, and presents no scheduling problems. The schedule is full, and all the games have meaning.

The 16 teams at the proposed AA level would have a great class. The three teams moving down would be Trinity, Lisbon, and Kindred. Trinity's numbers go way down after this year. Lisbon's numbers go down after this year. Kindred is a non-competitive program. There is no problem with these.

But I would support an expansion of the AA class. Move it to 24 teams. Keep Lisbon, Kindred, and Trinity, and bring back Watford City, Hazen, Rugby. Still a good class.

Eventually, the top class will grow, and if Dickinson gets to the level you're proposing, let them opt up.

[Bisonguy06]

Good points, steve... but the scheduling problems of 12 or 14 have an easy fix: Require the AAA teams to play North Dakota competition in their nonconference games. If the nonconference games are all scheduled to be AAA east versus west, no one is left without a game.

Wouldn't that work? Would anyone be against this? Does any school have a long-standing out of state game that they'd refuse to drop?

[steve34]

Okay:

12 teams is done. Reason: Even if you fill the schedule nicely among the teams, half the schedule is non-conference games. Coaches did not like the big number of non-league games this year.

14 teams can work but not well. Dickinson and Williston have out-of-state games. Even if they gave them up, the non-league schedule would not be even, and you still have three non-league games.

10 teams: No scheduling holes, and every game means something.

[ndlionsfan]

Why can't more 3A teams schedule 2A teams for their nonconference schedule? I don't see any reason why Jamestown can't play VC and Lisbon because the 2A teams need to fill 2 games nonconference as well and it could cut down on the east-west travel.

[Bisonguy06]

I like kicking these ideas around as long as we act like adults here...

The flip side of "in a 10 team league, every game means something" is this, from a coach's perspective: "The first game we play this year, on a Friday in August, after 9 practices, could determine my team's seed or whether or not we make the playoffs." Is that good? Is that preferable to playing some nonconference games to experiment with your playbook and your personnel?

[Bisonguy06]

Here's how I'd lay out a 14 team AAA schedule:
7 teams in the west, 7 in the east, 6 conference games, 3 nonconference games (all played vs. ND 3A competition)

First two weeks of the season - Nonconference, east versus west. One home game, one away game.

Remainder of the season - Conference play begins. Six of your seven teams in the east and west play conference games. Your leftover teams (1 east, 1 west), play a nonconference game. You'll have a new leftover team each week in the east and the west. Does it matter what the east vs. west matchups are? Not really... but distance and travel can be a consideration.


Personally, I like the idea of having a nonconference game somewhere in the middle of your schedule to experiment. (Examples: It's week six, your senior QB isn't getting it done, it's time to see what the junior can do. Three guys are banged up and it's nonconference, so let's rest them and give a couple new guys a shot. Let's open up the playbook and see what works, ect.)

I like this better than 10. I don't care who the 12 or 14 teams are, I'm just inclined to want to add to AAA (or keep it at 12) instead of subtracting from it.

[Edward I]

Sounds like Devil's Lake wants to bury itself so deep in to AA football that they can not be touched when it comes time for real enrollment numbers to have to play in their real class. You are talking about smaller programs that are good and having to compete with larger programs that want to win but cannot buld a program. If a larger progam that cannot win ( I use the word program loosley in this case) will do anything to win which would include moving down, why should they be allowed to do that?

[Wildcat]

People on here can preach all they want about how their "helping" AAA, but it sounds like Devils Lake is trying every last-ditch effort to stay in Class AA. Why did this plan come from Devils Lake and why is it even given merit? Let someone else draw up a plan like maybe a AAA school, ya know, ones who actually care about AAA instead of officials at a school who only care about keeping Devils Lake at the AA level. I think this plan should be thrown in a box with all the other plans people come up with and when it's time to seriously do something about realignment, you can look at them. That stops all of these people from floating these ridiculous realignment ideas.

Under this "Great" plan, Linton would be in the same region as Dickinson Trinity, but Hazen wouldn't. How does that work at all? I don't know who draws these up, but there's more to it than just printing out a map of North Dakota and circling a group of teams from one area of the state. Under a new plan, if Hazen and Trinity are in the same class, they HAVE to play each other. It only makes sense.
Also, I heard Carrington is in the East and DL in the West? How the heck does that work? If you divide the state in half, Devils Lake is more Eastern than Carrington? How would you ever be able to explain that? That's not common sense. Those two would have to be switched.

My favorite line on here is how 12-14 teams creates for tough scheduling. Oh, I'm sorry that life isn't so hunky dory that it all works out. While I do believe 10 teams in a division would work, you can't move Williston, Jamestown and Dickinson out of the top class. I even read someone say "Move Williston or Move Jamestown and make it a 12-team class."

Folks, Those three schools have to move down together or not at all. They're too close in enrollment to move one down without moving them all down.
While I don't think it's a bad plan Steve, I think the people who put this together could act like they care the TINIEST about Class A football rather than claiming to care about Class AAA when all their vested interest lies in keeping their school Class AA. It's plainly obvious.

[Bisonguy06]

And the funny thing is that Devils Lake helped create their own problem here. They were big supporters of creating a 12 team AAA and making it the only class where you couldn't opt up. This eliminated Wahpeton, Shanley, and St. Mary's, schools who had willingly opted up to the highest football division for years in the past. These three schools and Davies could have rounded out a nice 16 team AAA division starting in 2011.

Now that they need a team to opt up and become the 14th AAA school, and now that they've given Wahpeton, Shanley and St. Mary's a taste of AA football success, it's likely that not one of them will opt up.

Long story short: By telling Wahpeton, Shanley and St. Mary's "you have to play down a level," you (Devils Lake) might have to play up a level!

[steve34]

Devils Lake had little to do with the AAA class moving to 12 teams. The move was made by the 12 teams after Turtle Mountain left the EDC late, causing several teams to scramble to find games. They didn't want to mess with finding games if someone else decides to bug out after telling the state they would stay in.

This is an indication that the top class would probably embrace the plan. They like scheduling ease and good games. 10 teams would provide that.

[Bisonguy06]

I'm sure Devils Lake was in favor of it to keep them away from the AA/AAA bubble. Probably unfair to blame the shrinking of AAA from 16 to 12 entirely on them.

My point is that the teams that could solve Devils Lake's "problem" have all been given a taste of AA football now and may never opt up again.

People know that the 10 team AAA will help Devils Lake, but I don't sense that they're convinced that the plan helps everyone (certainly not on this board). That'll be a tough case for Devils Lake to make.

Ultimately, I think WIlliston, Jamestown, and Dickinson should make a decision on this plan as a group and that the activities association should listen to them. If they don't want to move down as a group, they should not be forced down. I agree now with those who are saying that these schools are nearly identical in size and should not be split up.

[Indy5]

If there are 10 teams in AAA, how many will make the playoffs. 4?

[Bisonguy06]

Time for me to eat some crow... of the former AA teams, Rugby lost, Hazen lost and Watford City didn't dominate. I predicted Watford and Hazen would romp. I should've paid more respect to Harvey and their tradition. In the four class system, the gap between AA and A has always been small. The realignment last year didn't ruin 'A.' Watford may win it, but they'll have to earn it.

[Indy5]

Time for me to eat some crow... of the former AA teams, Rugby lost, Hazen lost and Watford City didn't dominate. I predicted Watford and Hazen would romp. I should've paid more respect to Harvey and their tradition. In the four class system, the gap between AA and A has always been small. The realignment last year didn't ruin 'A.' Watford may win it, but they'll have to earn it.

Rugby had one pretty good season a couple years ago in AA. Otherwise they were never really very good in AA.