East Playoff Picture

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East Playoff Picture

Postby steve34 » Fri Oct 09, 2009 10:15 pm

Haven't heard if Wahpeton beat Oak Grove tonight, but assuming they did.

Shanley over Lisbon 25-14
Valley City over Central Cass 29-6

Standings:

Wahpeton 5-0
Shanley 4-1
Valley City 3-2
Lisbon 3-2
Central Cass 2-3
Oak Grove 2-3

Remaining schedule:

Lisbon: vs. Wahpeton, @ Kindred
Central Cass: vs. Kindred, @ Oak Grove
Valley City: vs. Grafton, @ Wahpeton

Now, all sorts of crazy things can happen, but projections would suggest that Wahpeton would defeat Valley City and Lisbon, Valley City would defeat Grafton, Lisbon would defeat Kindred, and Central Cass would defeat Kindred.

Central Cass vs. Oak Grove: tough call. If Central Cass wins out, and Lisbon and Valley City split, all three finish 4-3.

Three-way tie for third. Head-to-head tie-breaker not applicable, since Lisbon beat Valley City, Central Cass beat Lisbon, and Valley City beat Central Cass. Point differential procedure caps maximum one-game differential at 17, and uses differential to decide top team in the tie only. Remaining ties are broken using head-to-head.

Point differential summary:
Lisbon 20, Valley City 6 (Lisbon +14, Valley City -14)
Central Cass 21, Lisbon 8 (Central Cass +13, Lisbon -13) (Lisbon +1 overall)
Valley City 29, Central Cass 6 (Valley City +17, Central Cass -17) (Valley City +3 overall, Central Cass -4 overall).

Final point-differential totals:

Valley City +3
Lisbon +1
Central Cass -4

Result: Valley City wins point differential, and claims third place.

Remaining tie: Lisbon and Central Cass each 4-3. System uses head-to-head. Central Cass claims fourth, Lisbon finshes fifth.

Playoff scenario:

Valley City clinches a playoff spot with a win over Grafton or Wahpeton.
Lisbon clinches a playoff spot by winning, a split and a Central Cass loss, or a split and two Valley City losses.
Central Cass clinches a spot by winning out and a Lisbon loss or two Valley City losses.

Oak Grove has some scenarios to get in.

Valley City will most likely split. Wahpeton will most likely defeat Lisbon. Central Cass will most like beat Kindred. So, it probably comes down to the Oak Grove-Central Cass game. If Central Cass wins out, Lisbon will most likely miss the playoffs.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Fri Oct 09, 2009 10:24 pm

Wahpeton defeated OG-PC 37-20
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby ND_beast » Sun Oct 11, 2009 12:05 pm

remember that Central Cass has beaten Oak Grove already this year (26-0), although that game didnt have any affect on the confrence standings. But if the game plays out the same way and the rest of the games get played out as said, central cass and valley city should be in and lisbon should be out.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby GoPack#2 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:49 pm

steve34 wrote:Haven't heard if Wahpeton beat Oak Grove tonight, but assuming they did.

Shanley over Lisbon 25-14
Valley City over Central Cass 29-6

Standings:

Wahpeton 5-0
Shanley 4-1
Valley City 3-2
Lisbon 3-2
Central Cass 2-3
Oak Grove 2-3

Remaining schedule:

Lisbon: vs. Wahpeton, @ Kindred
Central Cass: vs. Kindred, @ Oak Grove
Valley City: vs. Grafton, @ Wahpeton

Now, all sorts of crazy things can happen, but projections would suggest that Wahpeton would defeat Valley City and Lisbon, Valley City would defeat Grafton, Lisbon would defeat Kindred, and Central Cass would defeat Kindred.

Central Cass vs. Oak Grove: tough call. If Central Cass wins out, and Lisbon and Valley City split, all three finish 4-3.

Three-way tie for third. Head-to-head tie-breaker not applicable, since Lisbon beat Valley City, Central Cass beat Lisbon, and Valley City beat Central Cass. Point differential procedure caps maximum one-game differential at 17, and uses differential to decide top team in the tie only. Remaining ties are broken using head-to-head.

Point differential summary:
Lisbon 20, Valley City 6 (Lisbon +14, Valley City -14)
Central Cass 21, Lisbon 8 (Central Cass +13, Lisbon -13) (Lisbon +1 overall)
Valley City 29, Central Cass 6 (Valley City +17, Central Cass -17) (Valley City +3 overall, Central Cass -4 overall).

Final point-differential totals:

Valley City +3
Lisbon +1
Central Cass -4

Result: Valley City wins point differential, and claims third place.

Remaining tie: Lisbon and Central Cass each 4-3. System uses head-to-head. Central Cass claims fourth, Lisbon finshes fifth.

Playoff scenario:

Valley City clinches a playoff spot with a win over Grafton or Wahpeton.
Lisbon clinches a playoff spot by winning, a split and a Central Cass loss, or a split and two Valley City losses.
Central Cass clinches a spot by winning out and a Lisbon loss or two Valley City losses.

Oak Grove has some scenarios to get in.

Valley City will most likely split. Wahpeton will most likely defeat Lisbon. Central Cass will most like beat Kindred. So, it probably comes down to the Oak Grove-Central Cass game. If Central Cass wins out, Lisbon will most likely miss the playoffs.

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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby PrepFBrules » Tue Oct 13, 2009 8:18 pm

steve34 wrote:Haven't heard if Wahpeton beat Oak Grove tonight, but assuming they did.

Shanley over Lisbon 25-14
Valley City over Central Cass 29-6

Standings:

Wahpeton 5-0
Shanley 4-1
Valley City 3-2
Lisbon 3-2
Central Cass 2-3
Oak Grove 2-3

Remaining schedule:

Lisbon: vs. Wahpeton, @ Kindred
Central Cass: vs. Kindred, @ Oak Grove
Valley City: vs. Grafton, @ Wahpeton

Now, all sorts of crazy things can happen, but projections would suggest that Wahpeton would defeat Valley City and Lisbon, Valley City would defeat Grafton, Lisbon would defeat Kindred, and Central Cass would defeat Kindred.

Central Cass vs. Oak Grove: tough call. If Central Cass wins out, and Lisbon and Valley City split, all three finish 4-3.

Three-way tie for third. Head-to-head tie-breaker not applicable, since Lisbon beat Valley City, Central Cass beat Lisbon, and Valley City beat Central Cass. Point differential procedure caps maximum one-game differential at 17, and uses differential to decide top team in the tie only. Remaining ties are broken using head-to-head.

Point differential summary:
Lisbon 20, Valley City 6 (Lisbon +14, Valley City -14)
Central Cass 21, Lisbon 8 (Central Cass +13, Lisbon -13) (Lisbon +1 overall)
Valley City 29, Central Cass 6 (Valley City +17, Central Cass -17) (Valley City +3 overall, Central Cass -4 overall).

Final point-differential totals:

Valley City +3
Lisbon +1
Central Cass -4

Result: Valley City wins point differential, and claims third place.

Remaining tie: Lisbon and Central Cass each 4-3. System uses head-to-head. Central Cass claims fourth, Lisbon finshes fifth.

Playoff scenario:

Valley City clinches a playoff spot with a win over Grafton or Wahpeton.
Lisbon clinches a playoff spot by winning, a split and a Central Cass loss, or a split and two Valley City losses.
Central Cass clinches a spot by winning out and a Lisbon loss or two Valley City losses.

Oak Grove has some scenarios to get in.

Valley City will most likely split. Wahpeton will most likely defeat Lisbon. Central Cass will most like beat Kindred. So, it probably comes down to the Oak Grove-Central Cass game. If Central Cass wins out, Lisbon will most likely miss the playoffs.


Steve, can you give us the scenarios for the West as well? Trinity, DL, Ryan, Carrington 1-2-3-4?
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby steve34 » Wed Oct 14, 2009 12:10 pm

Well, seeing as how I have too much time on my hands :roll:

Trinity: Clinched #1 seed

The rest is a lot more complicated than the east because the potential ties haven't had all of their games played.

Devils Lake: Wins out and is #2. Also #2 with a win over Ryan and a Carrington loss at Beulah. Is also #2 by losing out if Ryan loses at St. Marys, Carrington loses at Beulah, a St. Mary's loss to Turtle Mountain, and Devils Lake loses it's remaning games by a total of 11 or less points. The only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose out by a total of 12 or more, and, for every point beyond 11 total they lose by, Beulah beats Carrington by 18 minus as many as Devils Lake loses by more than 11.

Example: If Devils Lake loses out by 12 total, and Beulah beats Carrington by 17 (18 minus the 1 beyond 11 Devils Lake lost by), then Beulah would win the point spread of a four-way tie at 4-3 for second. Beulah would be #2. After that, the remaining three-way tie would go to Minot Ryan, who would have head-to-head tie-breakers over both Carrington and Devils Lake. Ryan would be #3. The remaining tie would go to Carrington, as they would have head-to-head over Devils Lake. Carrington #4.

Minot Ryan: #2 by winning out. In with a win over St. Mary's

Carrington. #2 by winning out and a Devils Lake win over Minot Ryan. In with a win.

The rest is really hard because of all the potential ties.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby larrybird33 » Wed Oct 14, 2009 6:34 pm

Steve's right on the west playoff picture.

There is a way to simplify it, as long as there are no BIG upsets.
Carrington, Ryan, St. Mary's, and Beulah are all in a log jam in the middle of the standings.

IF none of these teams lose to Bottineau or TMCHS, and IF none of them beat Devils Lake, it will be:

#1 - Trinity
#2 - Devils Lake
and
winner of Carrington at Beulah is in the playoffs
winner of Ryan at St. Mary's is in the playoffs
and #3 and #4 would be determined by head-to-head between those last two playoff teams.

But if any of those middle-of-the-pack teams beat DL or lose to TMCHS (they've all played Bottineau), it's a mess!
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby PrepFBrules » Wed Oct 14, 2009 10:17 pm

It would be interesting to see how it plays out if Carrington can get a win against Devils Lake. #4 West team is going to have their hands full with Wahp in round #1. East #2-4, sounds like they're pretty beatable.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby ND_beast » Thu Oct 15, 2009 10:49 pm

With valley city losing to grafton how does the east play off picture look?
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Bisonguy06 » Thu Oct 15, 2009 11:55 pm

Central Cass has the inside track on #3 and Lisbon on the #4 spot. (If they finish with identical records, CC has the head to head tiebreaker.)
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby steve34 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:00 am

As near as I have it figured:

Wahpeton has clinched a playoff spot. Clinches #1 seed with a win.

Shanley has clinched the #2 seed. Clinches #1 with a win a two Wahpeton losses (vs. Lisbon, @ Valley City).

Lisbon should finish 4-3. Valley City now predicted to finish 3-4. Central Cass should defeat Kindred to go to 3-3. Comes down to the Oak Grove vs. Central Cass game. If Central Cass wins, they are the three seed, and Lisbon is the four. If Oak Grove defeats Central Cass, Lisbon is the three seed, and Oak Grove, Central Cass, and Valley City are all 3-4. (If Shanley were to lose to Grafton, they could also finish 3-4).

Three way tie between Oak Grove, Central Cass, and Valley City: Valley City has tie breakers via head-to-head over both teams.

Four way tie--comes down to point spread. Not sure about that. Valley City would be +32 in the spread (+17 over Oak Grove and Central Cass, -2 to Grafton). Don't know the scores in the Oak Grove/Grafton game or the Central Cass/Grafton game. Obviously, the Central Cass/Oak Grove game hasn't happened yet.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:25 am

steve34 wrote:As near as I have it figured:

Wahpeton has clinched a playoff spot. Clinches #1 seed with a win.

Shanley has clinched the #2 seed. Clinches #1 with a win a two Wahpeton losses (vs. Lisbon, @ Valley City).

Lisbon should finish 4-3. Valley City now predicted to finish 3-4. Central Cass should defeat Kindred to go to 3-3. Comes down to the Oak Grove vs. Central Cass game. If Central Cass wins, they are the three seed, and Lisbon is the four. If Oak Grove defeats Central Cass, Lisbon is the three seed, and Oak Grove, Central Cass, and Valley City are all 3-4. (If Shanley were to lose to Grafton, they could also finish 3-4).

Three way tie between Oak Grove, Central Cass, and Valley City: Valley City has tie breakers via head-to-head over both teams.

Four way tie--comes down to point spread. Not sure about that. Valley City would be +32 in the spread (+17 over Oak Grove and Central Cass, -2 to Grafton). Don't know the scores in the Oak Grove/Grafton game or the Central Cass/Grafton game. Obviously, the Central Cass/Oak Grove game hasn't happened yet.


Oak Grove beat Grafton 34-22, lost to Valley City 34-0, play Central Cass on Tuesday @ Concordia
Central cass beat Grafton 48-18, lost to Valley City 29-6, play Oak Grove on Tuesday @ Concordia
Valley City beat OG 34-0, beat CC 29-6, lost to Grafton 8-6
Grafton beat Valley City 8-6, lost to OG 34-22, lost to CC 48-18

so therefore it would look like this (without the OG/CC game in there)
OG -5
CC 0
VC +32
G -27

So VC looks like they are IN for sure??
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Bisonguy06 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:53 am

No... Valley City is on the outside looking in. On paper, you'd expect Central Cass and Lisbon to end the year 4-3 and grab the last two playoff spots. Valley City can do no better than 3-4.

Valley City needs someone (a Kindred or an Oak Grove) to knock off one of these teams to create the three or four way tie situation that Steve described.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:06 am

Bisonguy06 wrote:No... Valley City is on the outside looking in. On paper, you'd expect Central Cass and Lisbon to end the year 4-3 and grab the last two playoff spots. Valley City can do no better than 3-4.

Valley City needs someone (a Kindred or an Oak Grove) to knock off one of these teams to create the three or four way tie situation that Steve described.


my bad...misread things
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby LPB'S37 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:03 pm

Can someone please tell me why CC plays OG twice??
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Bisonguy06 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:54 pm

I should clarify... Valley City could also get to 4-3 and create a tie, but they'd have to win at Wahpeton to do it.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby ClassBEast » Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:54 pm

LPB'S37 wrote:Can someone please tell me why CC plays OG twice??


They needed an extra game. The way I understand it, we could either play Oak Grove twice or travel to Beulah, so we chose the OG option.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby gobison#6 » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:35 pm

Central Cass handled Kindred 39 to 6
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby See Me » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:45 pm

LPB'S37 wrote:Can someone please tell me why CC plays OG twice??

I believe first one dint count to region play either right? Same wit botno n belcourt. They were scheduled twice first was called non-conference
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby ClassBEast » Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:19 pm

See Me wrote:
LPB'S37 wrote:Can someone please tell me why CC plays OG twice??

I believe first one dint count to region play either right? Same wit botno n belcourt. They were scheduled twice first was called non-conference


Correct, the first game didn't count. The one on Tuesday does.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:28 pm

The west now looks like this:

If Devils Lake beats Carrington and St. Mary's beats Ryan:
#1 - Trinity (7-0 in the region)
#2 - Devils Lake (6-1)
#3 - Carrington (4-3), head to head winner
#4 - St. Mary's (4-3)

If Devils Lake beats Carrington and Ryan beats St. Mary's:
#1 - Trinity (7-0)
#2 - Devils Lake (6-1)
#3 - Ryan (4-3), head to head winner
#4 - Carrington (4-3)

If Carrington beats Devils Lake:
#1 - Trinity (7-0)
#2 - Carrington (5-2), head to head winner
#3 - Devils Lake (5-2)
#4 - winner of St. Mary's and Ryan (4-3)
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby football101 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:47 pm

Bisonguy06 wrote:The west now looks like this:

If Devils Lake beats Carrington and St. Mary's beats Ryan:
#1 - Trinity (7-0 in the region)
#2 - Devils Lake (6-1)
#3 - Carrington (4-3), head to head winner
#4 - St. Mary's (4-3)

If Devils Lake beats Carrington and Ryan beats St. Mary's:
#1 - Trinity (7-0)
#2 - Devils Lake (6-1)
#3 - Ryan (4-3), head to head winner
#4 - Carrington (4-3)

If Carrington beats Devils Lake:
#1 - Trinity (7-0)
#2 - Carrington (5-2), head to head winner
#3 - Devils Lake (5-2)
#4 - winner of St. Mary's and Ryan (4-3)

In my opinion the playoffs are down to three teams. Trinity will make the Championship, and Devils Lake will beat Wahp in the Semis. They might not stop Smith but they will score more points.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby 3Putt » Sat Oct 17, 2009 8:36 pm

football101 wrote:<snip>

In my opinion the playoffs are down to three teams. Trinity will make the Championship, and Devils Lake will beat Wahp in the Semis. They might not stop Smith but they will score more points.

I wouldn't count Shanley out. They only lost to 3A Red River and Wahpeton. They had the Huskies on the ropes with a shot to win it at the end. I think there will be some good opening round playoff games but if the seedings hold, the semis could be very interesting.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby hockeyboss » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:45 am

shanley has a very strong team this year, i see them taking state, probably not in blowout games. but i see their composure carrying them to the championship game, and eventually a state championship game. they have everything a team needs. there perfectly well rounded.
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Re: East Playoff Picture

Postby just a fan » Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:01 pm

can antone tell me who trinity will play first game in the playoffs
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