Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby heimer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:01 pm

Been breaking down the playoff possibilities for Central Cass in preparation for tonight's game.

As I see it, there are two ways for Central Cass into the playoffs.

Central Cass clinches #4 with:

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton)
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat

Or

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a win over Kindred by 13
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC), including a loss to GBC by 12
A GBC win at Wahpeton
Central Cass's name is drawn out of a hat

Or

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred)
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC)
A GBC win at Wahpeton
The combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Fargo Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 points coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, and no fewer than 9 points coming from Shanley's loss to GBC

Explanation:
If Central Cass were to win out, they would finish 3-4. They lose all available three-way, four-way, and five-way ties, due to point spread, except for two.

Top scenario: The one three-way tie they can win is with Lisbon and Kindred.

If Central Cass wins out, Kindred is one of their victories, dropping Kindred to 3 losses in the region. Should Kindred lose to Grafton as well, they are 3-4.

If Lisbon loses out, they are 3-4.

In order for no further teams to join the tie, GBC must lose one game.

At that point, Central Cass, Lisbon, and Kindred are all 3-4. GBC and VC are 2-5 at best. Since Lisbon lost out, Shanley and Wahpeton are 5-2, and since Kindred lost to Grafton, Grafton is 6-1 at worst.

In this point differential, Lisbon is currently 0 (a 17-point win over CC and a similar loss to Kindred), Kindred is +17, and Central Cass is -17. A 17-point win over Kindred would nullify all point differentials at 0. Names are then drawn out of a hat.

Middle scenario: The one four-way tie Central Cass can win is with GBC, Shanley, and Kindred.

If Central Cass wins out, they are 3-4. Should Kindred lose to Grafton, they are 3-4. Should Shanley lose out, they are 3-4. Should GBC win out, they are 3-4. Since Shanley lost out, Lisbon is, at worst 4-3. In order for this to work, Wahpeton must beat Lisbon, leaving Wahpeton 4-3 after a loss to GBC. If any further teams drop to 3-4 Central Cass loses the tiebreaker.

If Central Cass's win over Kindred is by 13 exactly, and GBC's win over Shanley is by 12 exactly, Shanley and Central Cass are tied at +10 in point differential. Their names go to the hat.

Bottom scenario: Same as above, with the exception that, if the combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, Central Cass wins point differential, and no drawing is needed.

Central Cass wins no five-way ties possible.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby winner-within » Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:37 pm

Impressed...simply impressed :)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:04 pm

heimer wrote:Been breaking down the playoff possibilities for Central Cass in preparation for tonight's game.

As I see it, there are two ways for Central Cass into the playoffs.

Central Cass clinches #4 with:

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton)
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat

Or

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a win over Kindred by 13
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC), including a loss to GBC by 12
A GBC win at Wahpeton
Central Cass's name is drawn out of a hat

Or

Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred)
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC)
A GBC win at Wahpeton
The combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Fargo Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 points coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, and no fewer than 9 points coming from Shanley's loss to GBC

Explanation:
If Central Cass were to win out, they would finish 3-4. They lose all available three-way, four-way, and five-way ties, due to point spread, except for two.

Top scenario: The one three-way tie they can win is with Lisbon and Kindred.

If Central Cass wins out, Kindred is one of their victories, dropping Kindred to 3 losses in the region. Should Kindred lose to Grafton as well, they are 3-4.

If Lisbon loses out, they are 3-4.

In order for no further teams to join the tie, GBC must lose one game.

At that point, Central Cass, Lisbon, and Kindred are all 3-4. GBC and VC are 2-5 at best. Since Lisbon lost out, Shanley and Wahpeton are 5-2, and since Kindred lost to Grafton, Grafton is 6-1 at worst.

In this point differential, Lisbon is currently 0 (a 17-point win over CC and a similar loss to Kindred), Kindred is +17, and Central Cass is -17. A 17-point win over Kindred would nullify all point differentials at 0. Names are then drawn out of a hat.

Middle scenario: The one four-way tie Central Cass can win is with GBC, Shanley, and Kindred.

If Central Cass wins out, they are 3-4. Should Kindred lose to Grafton, they are 3-4. Should Shanley lose out, they are 3-4. Should GBC win out, they are 3-4. Since Shanley lost out, Lisbon is, at worst 4-3. In order for this to work, Wahpeton must beat Lisbon, leaving Wahpeton 4-3 after a loss to GBC. If any further teams drop to 3-4 Central Cass loses the tiebreaker.

If Central Cass's win over Kindred is by 13 exactly, and GBC's win over Shanley is by 12 exactly, Shanley and Central Cass are tied at +10 in point differential. Their names go to the hat.

Bottom scenario: Same as above, with the exception that, if the combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, Central Cass wins point differential, and no drawing is needed.

Central Cass wins no five-way ties possible.


percentage wise the first scenario has a chance. the rest are highly unlikely
interestilngly, this scenario places the burdon on CC themselves to win 2 games as the rest of the scenario is likely.
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred unlikely
A Kindred loss to Grafton likely
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton) likely
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)likely
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat33.33% chance
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:34 pm

You're right, heimer, CC is still alive. I missed that one in my original post. We'll know a lot more after tonight, though. :)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby ndfan » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:39 pm

thewanderer wrote:
heimer wrote:.


percentage wise the first scenario has a chance. the rest are highly unlikely
interestilngly, this scenario places the burdon on CC themselves to win 2 games as the rest of the scenario is likely.
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred unlikely
A Kindred loss to Grafton likely
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton) likely
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)likely
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat33.33% chance



I will give you the only percentage you need to know wander.

Grafton 2011 State AA champions: 100% :mrgreen:
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:01 pm

ndfan wrote:
thewanderer wrote:
heimer wrote:.


percentage wise the first scenario has a chance. the rest are highly unlikely
interestilngly, this scenario places the burdon on CC themselves to win 2 games as the rest of the scenario is likely.
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred unlikely
A Kindred loss to Grafton likely
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton) likely
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)likely
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat33.33% chance



I will give you the only percentage you need to know wander.

Grafton 2011 State AA champions: 100% :mrgreen:


here we go spoilers, here we go!! here we go spoilers, here we go!!
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:08 pm

It was all Grafton tonite 24-0 6 minutes into the first quarter off 2 blocked punts returned for TDs and a qb keeper by hanson. All down hill after that. Grafton has a great balanced team with guys making plays at every position. Once again dual game MVPsgo to the Fence brothers. of and De. coaches called a good game as well. JMHO
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 9:09 pm

Grafton def. Kindred 44-0
Fargo Shanley def. Lisbon 15-6
Central Cass def. Valley City 18-12 F/OT
Wahpeton def. GBC 18-16
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:13 pm

3 close games and a blowout. Either grafton is the real deal or the east is down a little this year. JMHO
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby heimer » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:20 pm

Grafton 6-0
Shanley 4-2
Wahpeton 4-2
Lisbon 3-3
Kindred 3-3
Central Cass 2-4
GBC 1-5
Valley City 1-5

At the moment:
Grafton #1
Shanley has clinched a spot. Clinches #2 with a win or a Wahpeton loss.
Wahpeton clinches a spot with a win, a loss to Lisbon by 16 or less, or a Kindred loss. They clinch #3 with a win or a loss to Lisbon of 16 or less and a Kindred win. They clinch #2 with a win and a Shanley loss.
Lisbon clinches a spot with a win and a Kindred loss
Kindred clinches a spot with a win or a loss to Central Cass by 16 or less and a Lisbon loss.

If Central Cass beats Kindred by 17 or more and Lisbon loses to Wahpeton, a name will be drawn out of a hat for fourth. Central Cass, Kindred, and Lisbon will be in the drawing.

If Lisbon beats Wahpeton by 17 or more and Kindred wins, a name will be drawn out of a hat for third. Lisbon, Wahpeton, and Kindred will be in the drawing. Following the drawing of the name, the remaining teams will decide the final spot based on head-to-head tiebreaker:

If Lisbon's name is drawn, Wahpeton is fourth.
If Wahpeton's name is drawn, Kindred is fourth.
If Kindred's name is drawn, Lisbon is fourth.

If GBC beats Shanley, Lisbon beats Wahpeton, and Kindred beats Central Cass, Shanley, Wahpeton, Lisbon, and Kindred tie for second at 4-3. Shanley wins this tie on head-to-head. If Lisbon's win over Wahpeton is by 16 or less, Wahpeton is third, and Kindred is fourth. If Lisbon's win is by 17 or more, a name will be drawn for third, and the remaining teams will break the tie for fourth through head to head, as referenced above.
Last edited by heimer on Fri Oct 14, 2011 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby winner-within » Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:13 am

I would take That Suda Kid to the Tornadoes....you can keep the rest....Ha ah 8)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby nick1016 » Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:48 am

thewanderer wrote:3 close games and a blowout. Either grafton is the real deal or the east is down a little this year. JMHO




I'm not sure that every other team is down, I think Grafton is just a "solid" team with some very good talent at the skilled positions. But, the clear difference between Grafton and the rest of the league, in my opinion, is the O and D line play. Grafton has some very, very good O and D line players and that is making the difference big time for them.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Danceisntasport » Fri Oct 14, 2011 12:13 pm

Out of the top 4 in each region, is it pretty even between the two regions?
You've gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby GRIDIRON GURU » Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:06 pm

No, the west is way down this year,
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:35 am

thewanderer wrote:3 close games and a blowout. Either grafton is the real deal or the east is down a little this year. JMHO

I'm gonna go with "Grafton is the real deal!" If these kids stay healthy, I think they are going all the way.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:48 pm

EAST (October 18th)
Grafton 44 Valley City 6
Wahpeton 36 Lisbon 14
Fargo Shanley 36 GBC 12
Kindred 42 Central Cass ?

WEST (October 18th)
Carrington 28 Rugby 6
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:58 pm

East Division should be set now!

#1 Grafton
#2 Fargo Shanley
#3 Wahpeton
#4 Kindred
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