heimer wrote:Been breaking down the playoff possibilities for Central Cass in preparation for tonight's game.
As I see it, there are two ways for Central Cass into the playoffs.
Central Cass clinches #4 with:
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton)
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat
Or
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a win over Kindred by 13
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC), including a loss to GBC by 12
A GBC win at Wahpeton
Central Cass's name is drawn out of a hat
Or
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred)
A Kindred loss to Grafton
Two Shanley losses (Lisbon, at GBC)
A GBC win at Wahpeton
The combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Fargo Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 points coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, and no fewer than 9 points coming from Shanley's loss to GBC
Explanation:
If Central Cass were to win out, they would finish 3-4. They lose all available three-way, four-way, and five-way ties, due to point spread, except for two.
Top scenario: The one three-way tie they can win is with Lisbon and Kindred.
If Central Cass wins out, Kindred is one of their victories, dropping Kindred to 3 losses in the region. Should Kindred lose to Grafton as well, they are 3-4.
If Lisbon loses out, they are 3-4.
In order for no further teams to join the tie, GBC must lose one game.
At that point, Central Cass, Lisbon, and Kindred are all 3-4. GBC and VC are 2-5 at best. Since Lisbon lost out, Shanley and Wahpeton are 5-2, and since Kindred lost to Grafton, Grafton is 6-1 at worst.
In this point differential, Lisbon is currently 0 (a 17-point win over CC and a similar loss to Kindred), Kindred is +17, and Central Cass is -17. A 17-point win over Kindred would nullify all point differentials at 0. Names are then drawn out of a hat.
Middle scenario: The one four-way tie Central Cass can win is with GBC, Shanley, and Kindred.
If Central Cass wins out, they are 3-4. Should Kindred lose to Grafton, they are 3-4. Should Shanley lose out, they are 3-4. Should GBC win out, they are 3-4. Since Shanley lost out, Lisbon is, at worst 4-3. In order for this to work, Wahpeton must beat Lisbon, leaving Wahpeton 4-3 after a loss to GBC. If any further teams drop to 3-4 Central Cass loses the tiebreaker.
If Central Cass's win over Kindred is by 13 exactly, and GBC's win over Shanley is by 12 exactly, Shanley and Central Cass are tied at +10 in point differential. Their names go to the hat.
Bottom scenario: Same as above, with the exception that, if the combined point differential of Central Cass's win over Kindred and Shanley's loss to GBC equals 26 or more, with no more than 17 coming from Central Cass's win over Kindred, Central Cass wins point differential, and no drawing is needed.
Central Cass wins no five-way ties possible.
thewanderer wrote:heimer wrote:.
percentage wise the first scenario has a chance. the rest are highly unlikely
interestilngly, this scenario places the burdon on CC themselves to win 2 games as the rest of the scenario is likely.
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred unlikely
A Kindred loss to Grafton likely
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton) likely
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)likely
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat33.33% chance
ndfan wrote:thewanderer wrote:heimer wrote:.
percentage wise the first scenario has a chance. the rest are highly unlikely
interestilngly, this scenario places the burdon on CC themselves to win 2 games as the rest of the scenario is likely.
Two wins (Valley City, at Kindred), including a 17-point win over Kindred unlikely
A Kindred loss to Grafton likely
Two Lisbon losses (at Shanley, Wahpeton) likely
A GBC loss (at Wahpeton, Shanley)likely
Central Cass's name pulled out of the hat33.33% chance
I will give you the only percentage you need to know wander.
Grafton 2011 State AA champions: 100%
thewanderer wrote:3 close games and a blowout. Either grafton is the real deal or the east is down a little this year. JMHO
thewanderer wrote:3 close games and a blowout. Either grafton is the real deal or the east is down a little this year. JMHO
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