Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

The teams in Class AA.

Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:49 am

So, let me know if I am right on this or not.

East
Grafton - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Shanley, Wahp, Kindred, Lisbon, and GBC - still eligible for playoffs
VC and CC - playing for pride

West
Carrington - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Bott - clinched playoff spot
Ryan, Rugby, Beulah, Mary, TMCHS, Trinity - still eligible for playoffs
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:05 am

old#63 wrote:So, let me know if I am right on this or not.

East
Grafton - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Shanley, Wahp, Kindred, Lisbon, and GBC - still eligible for playoffs
VC and CC - playing for pride

West
Carrington - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Bott - clinched playoff spot
Ryan, Rugby, Beulah, Mary, TMCHS, Trinity - still eligible for playoffs


Nothing is entirely clinched yet...especially with two games left.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:42 am

old#63 wrote:So, let me know if I am right on this or not.

East
Grafton - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Shanley, Wahp, Kindred, Lisbon, and GBC - still eligible for playoffs
VC and CC - playing for pride

West
Carrington - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Bott - clinched playoff spot
Ryan, Rugby, Beulah, Mary, TMCHS, Trinity - still eligible for playoffs

old63,
what scenario of events would have to happen for Grafton to not have home field for both games, obviously two losses being part of the scenario. :?:
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:49 am

If they lose to Kindred this week could throw Grafton for a loop (with Kindred winning out); this scenario would give Kindred the #1 (I think)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:51 am

Run4Fun2009 wrote:
old#63 wrote:So, let me know if I am right on this or not.

East
Grafton - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Shanley, Wahp, Kindred, Lisbon, and GBC - still eligible for playoffs
VC and CC - playing for pride

West
Carrington - clinched playoff spot and homefield for quarterfinal game
Bott - clinched playoff spot
Ryan, Rugby, Beulah, Mary, TMCHS, Trinity - still eligible for playoffs


Nothing is entirely clinched yet...especially with two games left.

Well, I figure Grafton has clinched since they have 5 division wins and anyone else only has 3. So the best Shanley, Wahp, Lisbon, or Kindred can do is tie them for wins. And if the tiebreaker is heads up play, Grafton has beat Shanley, Wahp, and Lisbon, so they would win the tiebreaker. And even if Grafton loses to Kindred, and both Kindred and Grafton end up with 5 division wins each, Grafton would still have second place and get homefield for the opening round.
The west is more complicated, but I don't see how Carrington and Bott can get bumped out of the playoffs. Carrington has 5 division wins. Bott can still win the west, but Carrington can finish no worse than second, since Ryan is the only other team that can get to 5 divsion wins, and Carrington beat Ryan heads up. And even if Bott loses both remaining games, the worst they can finish is third, since Rugby, Beulah and Mary can tie them with 4 division wins, but Bott has beaten all three in heads up play.

Please correct me if I'm missing something.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:53 am

Run4Fun2009 wrote:If they lose to Kindred this week could throw Grafton for a loop (with Kindred winning out); this scenario would give Kindred the #1 (I think)

Right, if Kindred wins out, and Grafton loses out, Grafton would get 2nd in the east. Grafton would have a quarterfinal game, but might go on the road for the semi's (depending on who wins the other games).
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:02 am

who does kidred have left? how about the rest of the teams in east. who has the toughest next 2 games. might be interesting to anylize who might not make it?
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:28 am

thewanderer wrote:who does kidred have left? how about the rest of the teams in east. who has the toughest next 2 games. might be interesting to anylize who might not make it?


Week 8 is posted

Week 9 in the East is

Kindred @ CC
Grafton @ VC
Wahp @ Lisbon
GBC @ Shanley
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:33 am

Run4Fun2009 wrote:If they lose to Kindred this week could throw Grafton for a loop (with Kindred winning out); this scenario would give Kindred the #1 (I think)

only if Grafton loses out as well (I think) :)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Danceisntasport » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:50 pm

Grafton won't lose out. There is no way.
You've gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:52 pm

Danceisntasport wrote:Grafton won't lose out. There is no way.


There is always a chance
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby Flip » Tue Oct 11, 2011 1:00 am

lol...VC is receiving votes in the latest poll, but they're eliminated from playoff contention w/2 weeks left.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:49 am

Danceisntasport wrote:Grafton won't lose out. There is no way.

Kindred isn't a gimme for Grafton. The only losses Kindred has are to Shanley and Wahp (both very good teams). And VC obviously can play pretty tough football, since they just beat Shanley.

I think Grafton is a better football team than either Kindred or VC, but they need to keep playing well. The East is tough top to bottom.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby heimer » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:18 am

I'm just eyeballing this in, so feel free to correct me on this.

Grafton is 5-0, and the next closest team is 3-2. This means the worst Grafton can finish is in a tie for first place. They would have to lose out. Very unlikely, but for the sake of argument, lets just say they do.

First, who would they be tied with. The four teams that are 3-2 are Kindred, Shanley, Lisbon, and Wahpeton. For Grafton to lose out, they would have a loss to Kindred, but wins over Shanley and Wahpeton. It's possible, with Lisbon playing both Wahpeton and Shanley, that they could split, and those teams would all end up 4-3. Kindred wins out, then it's a two-way tie. Grafton would be two.

If either Shanley, Lisbon, or Wahpeton, win out, it's a three-way tie, or more. Grafton is already +34 in point differential over all those teams, by virtue of winning all games by 17 or more. So, if it's a three-way tie, Kindred would have to win by 17 or more, and even then, their scores with the other teams in the tie would have to be impressive.

The best scenario for Grafton to not finish first is losing out, Kindred winning out, and Lisbon splitting with Wahpeton and Shanley. Next would be Grafton losing out, Kindred winning out, and Lisbon winning out. In that scenario, Grafton, Kindred and Lisbon are all 5-2, with Kindred +18 in point differential (+17 over Lisbon (27-8), and at least +1 over Grafton, Grafton +16 in point differential (+17 over Lisbon and at least -1 to Kindred), and Lisbon -34. Kindred #1, Grafton #2, Lisbon #3, and either Wahpeton or Shanley #4.

If Lisbon loses the rest of their games, Griggs-Barnes County would have to sweep Shanley and Wahpeton for a two-way tie to happen between Kindred and Grafton.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby winner-within » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:34 am

In the famous words of the famous Sally Field in the famous Movie "Smokey and the Bandit" 8)

"Put the Pedal to the Metal and the thing to the Floor"...and seating wont Matter!!! :D
"It doesn't matter who scores the points, it's who can get the ball to the scorer" - Larry Bird
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 1:41 pm

winner-within wrote:In the famous words of the famous Sally Field in the famous Movie "Smokey and the Bandit" 8)

"Put the Pedal to the Metal and the thing to the Floor"...and seating wont Matter!!! :D

Winner, you take all the fun out of analyzing something to death. :)
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 2:18 pm

heimer wrote:I'm just eyeballing this in, so feel free to correct me on this.

Grafton is 5-0, and the next closest team is 3-2. This means the worst Grafton can finish is in a tie for first place. They would have to lose out. Very unlikely, but for the sake of argument, lets just say they do.

First, who would they be tied with. The four teams that are 3-2 are Kindred, Shanley, Lisbon, and Wahpeton. For Grafton to lose out, they would have a loss to Kindred, but wins over Shanley and Wahpeton. It's possible, with Lisbon playing both Wahpeton and Shanley, that they could split, and those teams would all end up 4-3. Kindred wins out, then it's a two-way tie. Grafton would be two.

If either Shanley, Lisbon, or Wahpeton, win out, it's a three-way tie, or more. Grafton is already +34 in point differential over all those teams, by virtue of winning all games by 17 or more. So, if it's a three-way tie, Kindred would have to win by 17 or more, and even then, their scores with the other teams in the tie would have to be impressive.

The best scenario for Grafton to not finish first is losing out, Kindred winning out, and Lisbon splitting with Wahpeton and Shanley. Next would be Grafton losing out, Kindred winning out, and Lisbon winning out. In that scenario, Grafton, Kindred and Lisbon are all 5-2, with Kindred +18 in point differential (+17 over Lisbon (27-8), and at least +1 over Grafton, Grafton +16 in point differential (+17 over Lisbon and at least -1 to Kindred), and Lisbon -34. Kindred #1, Grafton #2, Lisbon #3, and either Wahpeton or Shanley #4.

If Lisbon loses the rest of their games, Griggs-Barnes County would have to sweep Shanley and Wahpeton for a two-way tie to happen between Kindred and Grafton.

And couldn't Griggs/Barnes still slip into the 4th place playoff spot if they win out and Shanley and Wahp lose out?
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby winner-within » Tue Oct 11, 2011 4:31 pm

old#63 wrote:
winner-within wrote:In the famous words of the famous Sally Field in the famous Movie "Smokey and the Bandit" 8)

"Put the Pedal to the Metal and the thing to the Floor"...and seating wont Matter!!! :D

Winner, you take all the fun out of analyzing something to death. :)


Well the analyzing gives me a Headache
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby heimer » Tue Oct 11, 2011 6:11 pm

If GBC wins out, then more comes into play.

Shanley 3-2
Wahpeton 3-2
Kindred 3-2
Central Cass 1-4
GBC 1-4

If Shanley and Wahpeton both lose out, GBC is 3-4, Wahpeton is 3-4, and Shanley is 3-4. Lisbon, at that point, is 5-2.

Central Cass has Valley City and Kindred left, both win-able games for Central Cass. Since Kindred also has Grafton left, if Central Cass wins out, there is a good chance that Kindred and Central Cass would all end 3-4.

Scenario 1: Grafton wins out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass wins out:

Grafton 7-0
Lisbon 5-2
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
GBC 3-4
Kindred 3-4
Central Cass 3-4
VC 1-6

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2, three way tie for third. With no one team in the tie winning all the games, point differential is used for third place.

At this moment, point differential within that tie is as follows
Shanley +39 (3 games, GBC left)
Wahpeton +17 (3 games, GBC left)
Kindred -6 (3 games, CC left)
Central Cass -19 (3 games, Kindred left)
GBC -31 (2 games, Shanley and Wahpeton left)

In this scenario, Shanley can, at worst finish +22 (losing by 17 or more to GBC, spread capped at 17). Since GBC would also beat Wahpeton in this scenario, they would be at best +16 if they lose by only 1. The best GBC could do is finish +3 with two 17-point wins over Shanley and Wahpeton. So, in this tie, Shanley cannot be caught by point differential. Shanley is #3.

At that point the four teams that are left are GBC, Wahpeton, Kindred, and Central Cass. Again, no one won all the games in the tie. So, point differntial is used.

In those games, Wahpeton would, at worst, be +17, since they have two 17-point wins over Kindred and Central Cass, and could lose to GBC by 17 to finish at +17. Since Kindred would lose to Central Cass here, they would be, at best, -7. The best CC could finish is -3, with a 17-point win over Kindred. The best GBC could do in this tie would be -14, with a 17 point win over Wahpeton. So, by point spread, Wahpeton would be #4.

So, as you can see, it's not as simple as GBC winning out. They need to win out, and be in a tie that they have head-to-head with every team in the tie.

Scenario #2: Grafton wins out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Kindred beats Central Cass.
Grafton 7-0
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
CC 2-5
VC 1-6

Grafton is #1, Lisbon is #2, Kindred is #3, GBC is #4 (head to head with all teams in tie)

Scenario #3: Grafton beats Kindred, loses to VC, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass loses out
Grafton 6-1
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
VC 3-4
Central Cass 1-6

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2, Kindred #3, GBC #4 (head to head with all teams in tie)

But:

Scenario #4: Grafton loses out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass wins out
Grafton 5-2
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
Central Cass 3-4
VC 2-5

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2 (head to head), Kindred #3

Then, tie for fourth, with point differential:

At this moment:
GBC -14 (1 game, Shanley and Wahpeton left)
Wahpeton 0 (2 games, GBC left)
Shanley +33 (2 games, GBC left)
Central Cass -19 (3 games)

So, in this scenario, GBC would win two more games in this tie. To catch Shanley, they would have to win their two games by a combined 32 points to get to +18, which means at least a 15 point win over Shanley, followed by a 17 point (max spread) win over Wahpeton. That would tie GBC and Shanley at +18. If they beat Shanley by 14 or less, they are out (GBC best would then be +17, and Shanley worst would be +19). For every point more than 15 and less than 18 that they beat Shanley by, they could beat Wahpeton by one point less than 17. Example: Beat Shanley by 16, beat Wahpeton by 16. Beat Shanley by 17, beat Wahpeton by 15. But beat Shanley by 18, they still have to beat Wahpeton by 15, since only 17 points counted against Shanley.

These are not predictions. They only serve to illustrate that, for GBC, its not as simple as winning out to be #4. A whole lot has to happen.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:49 pm

To quote Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber when the girl says he has a million to one chance of her ever saying yes to him, "So you're telling me there's a chance".
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:06 pm

old#63 wrote:To quote Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber when the girl says he has a million to one chance of her ever saying yes to him, "So you're telling me there's a chance".

Lol. Grafton 7 0. Solved
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby winner-within » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:59 am

old#63 wrote:To quote Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber when the girl says he has a million to one chance of her ever saying yes to him, "So you're telling me there's a chance".



See it takes periodical Humor to stay in this thread... :D
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby thewanderer » Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:31 am

heimer wrote:If GBC wins out, then more comes into play.

Shanley 3-2
Wahpeton 3-2
Kindred 3-2
Central Cass 1-4
GBC 1-4

If Shanley and Wahpeton both lose out, GBC is 3-4, Wahpeton is 3-4, and Shanley is 3-4. Lisbon, at that point, is 5-2.

Central Cass has Valley City and Kindred left, both win-able games for Central Cass. Since Kindred also has Grafton left, if Central Cass wins out, there is a good chance that Kindred and Central Cass would all end 3-4.

Scenario 1: Grafton wins out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass wins out:

Grafton 7-0
Lisbon 5-2
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
GBC 3-4
Kindred 3-4
Central Cass 3-4
VC 1-6

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2, three way tie for third. With no one team in the tie winning all the games, point differential is used for third place.

At this moment, point differential within that tie is as follows
Shanley +39 (3 games, GBC left)
Wahpeton +17 (3 games, GBC left)
Kindred -6 (3 games, CC left)
Central Cass -19 (3 games, Kindred left)
GBC -31 (2 games, Shanley and Wahpeton left)

In this scenario, Shanley can, at worst finish +22 (losing by 17 or more to GBC, spread capped at 17). Since GBC would also beat Wahpeton in this scenario, they would be at best +16 if they lose by only 1. The best GBC could do is finish +3 with two 17-point wins over Shanley and Wahpeton. So, in this tie, Shanley cannot be caught by point differential. Shanley is #3.

At that point the four teams that are left are GBC, Wahpeton, Kindred, and Central Cass. Again, no one won all the games in the tie. So, point differntial is used.

In those games, Wahpeton would, at worst, be +17, since they have two 17-point wins over Kindred and Central Cass, and could lose to GBC by 17 to finish at +17. Since Kindred would lose to Central Cass here, they would be, at best, -7. The best CC could finish is -3, with a 17-point win over Kindred. The best GBC could do in this tie would be -14, with a 17 point win over Wahpeton. So, by point spread, Wahpeton would be #4.

So, as you can see, it's not as simple as GBC winning out. They need to win out, and be in a tie that they have head-to-head with every team in the tie.

Scenario #2: Grafton wins out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Kindred beats Central Cass.
Grafton 7-0
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
CC 2-5
VC 1-6

Grafton is #1, Lisbon is #2, Kindred is #3, GBC is #4 (head to head with all teams in tie)

Scenario #3: Grafton beats Kindred, loses to VC, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass loses out
Grafton 6-1
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
VC 3-4
Central Cass 1-6

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2, Kindred #3, GBC #4 (head to head with all teams in tie)

But:

Scenario #4: Grafton loses out, Lisbon wins out, GBC wins out, Central Cass wins out
Grafton 5-2
Lisbon 5-2
Kindred 4-3
GBC 3-4
Shanley 3-4
Wahpeton 3-4
Central Cass 3-4
VC 2-5

Grafton #1, Lisbon #2 (head to head), Kindred #3

Then, tie for fourth, with point differential:

At this moment:
GBC -14 (1 game, Shanley and Wahpeton left)
Wahpeton 0 (2 games, GBC left)
Shanley +33 (2 games, GBC left)
Central Cass -19 (3 games)

So, in this scenario, GBC would win two more games in this tie. To catch Shanley, they would have to win their two games by a combined 32 points to get to +18, which means at least a 15 point win over Shanley, followed by a 17 point (max spread) win over Wahpeton. That would tie GBC and Shanley at +18. If they beat Shanley by 14 or less, they are out (GBC best would then be +17, and Shanley worst would be +19). For every point more than 15 and less than 18 that they beat Shanley by, they could beat Wahpeton by one point less than 17. Example: Beat Shanley by 16, beat Wahpeton by 16. Beat Shanley by 17, beat Wahpeton by 15. But beat Shanley by 18, they still have to beat Wahpeton by 15, since only 17 points counted against Shanley.

These are not predictions. They only serve to illustrate that, for GBC, its not as simple as winning out to be #4. A whole lot has to happen.

that was interesting, thanks for all the hard work
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby nick1016 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:18 am

How healthy is Grafton? Anyone out for the season? I know Shanley has some nicked up kids.

There is definately parity in the EAST, but I really believe the teams as a whole are BETTER than years past.
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Re: Playoff Picture as of 10/10/11

Postby old#63 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:41 am

snohcs wrote:How healthy is Grafton? Anyone out for the season? I know Shanley has some nicked up kids.

There is definately parity in the EAST, but I really believe the teams as a whole are BETTER than years past.

For Grafton, the only starter out for the season is a wide reciever, LeClerc. He broke a lower leg bone in the Grafton/Shanley game. Jiskra (wide receiver-safety) has been nursing a banged up hand, but he played with it last game and seemed to do fine. Suda (wide reciever-return man) sat out the Griggs/Barnes game with an ankle, but played against Wahp. There are a couple non-starters out, but mostly Grafton is healthy at the moment, other than some minor nicks. The line has stayed healthy so far which has been a big part of Grafton's success, since they aren't real deep for linemen.
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